Badenscoth to Batter Rivals at Kempton on Thursday

Badenscoth is a good value bet at Kempton on Thursday.

Badenscoth is a good value bet at Kempton on Thursday.

3.10 Lingfield – Catch The Pigeon

Catch The Pigeon is the first selection of the day, and while it is a horse we are most certainly not dogmatic about, the Ed De Giles runner looks a smidgen big at the odds. The daughter of Paco Boy has 4 starts to her name, and showed up well for a long way last time out over 7 furlongs at Kempton before fading late in the piece. She could do a little better this time out off a 2lb lower mark.

Catch The Pigeon ran three races in quick succession in July to obtain a handicap mark, and she was given an initial rating of 57. There was a little money for the filly on her handicap debut at Kempton and she showed nice speed to bag the early lead before fading at the business end of the race. With a long, galloping home straight, Kempton isn’t always the easiest to win at from the front and she paid for those early exertions. Lingfield’s 7-furlong course is notoriously sharp, and Catch The Pigeon has a fair draw in stall 8. If she can display that early pace and get a handy position near the rail, the Paco Boy filly may be tough to peg back. Perhaps she is one to have a bet on at +1400  with Bet365 and Coral, with a small lay on the exchanges at a short price – as it is possible she will lead into the final furlong before being overhauled.

6.25 Kempton – Badenscoth

Kempton Park is the staple diet for those bettors who like to strike wagers on the flat action over the winter months, but the Surrey track is also open during the rest of the year and despite being overshadowed by the turf action, there are some nice races throughout the calendar. The card on Wednesday night is reasonable and the 8 furlong, Class 4 handicap looks an intriguing affair. There is a strong favourite in the form of the Ed Dunlop trained Mudallel. Running over course and distance last time out, the son of Invincible Spirit fairly bolted up after being held up early.

He returns today and tried to double up off an 8lb higher mark, but while the horse remains unexposed on artificial surfaces, his odds are prohibitive and we look elsewhere for a selection. The one runner in the field who appears to be overpriced is the Dean Ivory trained Badenscoth. Already a course and distance winner with a further second placed finish to his name, the horse returns from the turf and appears to have been underestimated at odds of +750  with Coral and BetVictor.

Badenscoth ran a reasonable race last time out at Nottingham given the circumstances. He had to compete on heavy ground which would have not been desirable based on pedigree and after hitting the front a couple of furlongs from home, the son of Foxwedge understandably tired late in the day. Prior to that run, Dean Ivory’s inmate impressed significantly when bolting up at Chelmsford by nearly 4 lengths. That run was not completely unexpected, as in his previous race he went close at Kempton over 8 furlongs. Was held up that day and made late gains and connections realised they could get more out of the horse by riding him a little more prominently. The change of tactics had the desired effect at Chelmsford, and he is likely to sit handy again today.

Dean Ivory’s turf to all-weather switchers racing in February to October do very well; 33/268 (12%) for £96 LSP. The horses score 60% more often than they are entitled to based on odds, and Badenscoth is a good bet.

Tips Summary

15:10 Lingfield – Catch the Pigeon to win
Wednesday 20th August
Odds:  +1400

18:25 Kempton – Badenscoth to win
Wednesday 20th August
Odds:  +750