3.10 Chepstow – Oscar Denarius
Nothing like a class 5 handicap on soft ground at Chepstow to kick off proceedings. For those who don’t know the course, its main features include a very long, undulating home straight that can take some getting in testing conditions over the longer trips. One runner who seems overpriced is the Marcus Tregoning trained Oscar Denarius. The son of Authorized has been far from a world beater in four career starts to date, but there are a few potential positives that make his odds of +700 look a little generous.
Being a son of Authorized, it is almost a copper bottomed certainty that the switch from the all-weather to soft turf will suit. The sire is renowned for producing mud larks, and the underfoot conditions could add several pounds improvement on their own. Secondly, the first time hood is applied by Tregoning. The veteran trainer is adept at knowing when his horses will benefit from the assistance of some sort of headgear, with his record reading 24/151 (15.89%) for £140.48 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.42. His runners can win at big prices too.
Gran Maestro is a fair horse under National Hunt rules and is the right favourite, but potential that he could be over bet with Richard Hughes in the saddle. With 10 runners, the widely available +700 about Oscar Denarius looks a solid each way bet.
5.50 Newcastle – Shearian
Tracy Waggott is a trainer to stay on the right side of. A relative newcomer to the game, she has done very well since obtaining her licence. Her runner Shearian was second in the same race last year and has clearly been targeted at the same contest again.
His form figures have been solid this season, with a 132 in his last three runs. Although perhaps a little better over 7f, this race looks weak and should not take too much winning. Horse comes back to the track after just a 6 day absence, but with Waggott, that is a plus and definitely not a negative; her horses off for 7 days or less are 36/222 (16.22%) for £106.88 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.55.
Lendal Bridge is the favourite, but has to shoulder a 6lb penalty for a facile success last time out, and at half the odds, offers little value. Shearian should be able to make the frame and could even go one better than last year, and at odds of +700 , he looks value.
Tips Summary (19th May)
5.50 Newcastle – Shearian E/W (0.5 points) – +700 – Bet365
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