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5.20 Ripon – Auspicion
To Ripon and the 8f maiden for the first selection of the day. In this 9 runner contest there only look to be 5 with a realistic shout of crossing the line first, and that makes the job a little easier. Tom Dascombe’s Cymro has the best form in the field and returns from his winter break, although he has had 4 runs which would also make him the most ‘exposed’. On the plus side, his sire Dark Angel’s 3 year olds have a better record than at 2, so there could have been plenty of improvement over the winter. He rates a credible danger to the selection, who is Auspicion.
Well fancied for an Ascot maiden that has worked out well, Auspicion duly ran with credit finishing second last July. Returned in September when a hot favourite at the same course over 7f, but did too much in front and bombed out. Has had a 222 day rest since, and remains a horse of potential.
There are some positive stats to support the selection. William Haggas 3 year olds in maiden company between January-July, who have not run for more than 8+ weeks and have had a maximum of 2 starts, have a great record; 48/147 (32.7%) for £78 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.36. Haggas is also 9/29 with a further 10 places with his 3 year olds in maidens at Ripon in the last 10 years.
Available at 163/100 2.63 +163 1.63 1.63 -0.61 , Auspicion may have too much class for this field and rates a fair bet.
6.50 Chelmsford – Noguchi
Silvestre De Sousa is one of the best jockeys in the business, and he managed to cajole Noguchi to success over 14f at Chelmsford last time out. Horse was ridden prominently which seems to be an advantage at the course, and won going away. Should be able to handle a minor drop in trip in this small field, with the same jockey doing the steering.
This is a weak race, and although he has to shoulder a 6lb penalty, the competition looks thin on the ground. Stand To Reason is second favourite but is unproven over the trip on the flat and Tony Carroll has generally done best in the first couple of months of the year before his success tails off.
Likely to be ridden aggressively to test rivals stamina and at 163/100 2.63 +163 1.63 1.63 -0.61 , rates a reasonable bet.
Tips Summary (16th April)
Auspicion Win – 5.20 Ripon – 163/100 2.63 +163 1.63 1.63 -0.61 – William Hill
Noguchi Win – 6.50 Chelmsford – 163/100 2.63 +163 1.63 1.63 -0.61 – William Hill