One of Saturday's value bets runs at York.

Arrowtown to Hit the Bullseye at York

One of Saturday's value bets runs at York.

There is so much racing on this Saturday that it is difficult to find enough jockeys to cover all of the runners. It takes a keen, well-trained and most importantly patient eye to spot value on a day where there are 8 different meetings – and hopefully we have that eye, as the SBO Racing team believe we have identified some good bets that should turn a profit.

1.50 Newcastle – Mazzini

A fourteen runner handicap isn’t always our first port of call for selections, but conditions and the race makeup look in favour of the James Fanshawe trained Mazzini in the opener at Gosforth Park. The 4 year old Exceed and Excel gelding put in a very promising effort last time which should have him spot on for this contest. He can be backed at odds of +500  with Bet365Coral and Ladbrokes which seem very fair – and the bookmakers offering those prices all have the Best Odds Guaranteed concession, so bettors can also gain an advantage there.

Mazzini is a previous course and distance winner which helps. He won at the track last August and went on to have a productive couple of months before James Fanshawe put the horse away for the winter. Fanshawe brought this horse back at Ascot in a Class 3 handicap for seasonal reappearance and although the horse was prominent in the betting, he ran under par. Following on, the horse went and competed at Goodwood and was again backed, but finished midfield.

The trainer decided to switch the horse back to the all-weather last time out and he took a big step forward finishing second. In retrospect, the improved performance should have come as no surprise, as the horse is 2/5 with two seconds and a third from 5 starts on the all-weather – he has never been out of the frame. Compare that to a record of 0/7 on turf and it is easy to forgive him those sub-par runs. The effort at Chelmsford last time out should be applauded as Mazzini is a hold up horse which isn’t always suited by Chelmsford’s turning track. Newcastle has a straight 6 furlongs which enables those runners with late pace to get into full stride without having to negotiate a bend.

James Fanshawe does very well with his all-weather runners in July; 44/184 (24%) for £79 LSP, with the horses scoring 60% more often than they are entitled to based on odds. Mazzini should get a solid pace to aim at and is likely to go very close.

5.25 York – Arrowtown

Arrowtown may be 0/10 but we believe tonight is the perfect opportunity for Mick Easterby’s 5 year old Rail Link mare to hit the target. She has yet to win but has been very consistent, always finishing close to the top of the field. The horse was heavily backed last time out at Doncaster and although she was denied, there is cause for optimism. Mick Easterby horses who were beaten favourite’s last time out, do very well the next time they run; 71/378 (19%) for £17 LSP, with an A/E of 1.27.

Arrowtown is likely to sit just behind the leaders and her jockey will want to leave it as late as possible before putting the horse’s head in front. Her pilot Joanna Mason is a capable young rider and the yard do well in apprentice races. The +450  with Bet365 and Ladbrokes looks value.

Tips Summary

13:50 Newcastle – Mazzini to win
Saturday 1st July
Odds:  +500

17:25 York – Arrowtown to win
Saturday 1st July
Odds:  +450

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