Tuesday is one of those funky days with two afternoon meetings and then three in the evening. Some of the races at Pontefract are tough to decipher, whilst at Wolverhampton racecourse there appears to be a few juicy bets. In we go.
James Fanshawe isn’t a trainer who regularly enters his runners in claimers. In fact, in the last 10 years, the Newmarket maestro has only had 20 runners in claimers, with a staggering 8 of those horses winning. They have produced a generous £22 LSP and the expected number of victors based on odds was just 3, so his horses have significantly outperformed expectations. This strong statistic is not the sole reason we are supporting Arctic Angel, but it definitely doesn’t temper enthusiasm.
Arctic Angel didn’t see the racecourse until last autumn, late in his 3-year-old career. The horse had already been gelded and switched from Dean Ivory to Fanshawe, so he had obviously had some problems. Despite being prominent in the market on his first two runs, the horse disappointed. He was understandably left in the betting for third start and ran a much more promising race at Wolverhampton, finishing second of nine. Was given a break until May and came back for handicap debut off a mark of 65, wearing the first-time hood.
The horse then switched to Nottingham and was a heavily backed favourite, but completely bombed out. That was his first start on turf and the horse didn’t enjoy it one bit. Now he is switched to the all-weather and dropped to claiming company, a better run can be expected. The 4-year-old son of Dark Angel can be supported at odds of +450 with BetVictor which will surely contract closer to race time.
Fanshawe does very well with his horses who ran on turf last time out and are switched to the all-weather and also has an impressive resume with his entrants on artificial surfaces over the summer months. The main danger looks to be the market leader Point North. A last time out winner, the horse knows Wolverhampton very well, but he does appear to be at his best over the minimum trip of 5 furlongs.
There seems to be a little divergence of opinion in the bookmaking ranks as to the chance of the Andrew Balding trained Danzan in the 7-furlong novice stakes at Wolverhampton. Some bookmakers, including Coral and Ladbrokes have gone as big as +200 on the horse, whereas other have been a little more conservative and are going in at +163 . The SBO Racing team have Andrew Balding’s horse in at closer to +138 and the son of Lawman represents value at the current odds.
Danzan is a once raced 2-year-old who made an encouraging debut at Chelmsford last time out. The horse travelled well in the early stages of the contest at the Essex track, and looked a little bit green as they quickened turning for home. He wasn’t knocked about, but stayed on in pleasing fashion to finish a close up sixth. Andrew Balding’s juveniles typically come on bundles for their first racecourse appearance and improvement of 10-15lbs wouldn’t be unexpected. The race at Chelmsford has worked out well with winners and placed horses coming out of the contest.
The main threat is likely to emanate from the Tom Dascombe yard in the form of his unraced 2-year-old colt Uncovered. A well-bred type, it would be no surprise to see the son of Helmet put up a promising debut effort, but assuming normally improvement from Danzan, he would have to be fairly smart to lower the colours of the Balding colt.
14:25 Wolverhampton – Arctic Angel to win
Tuesday 11th July
14:55 Wolverhampton – Danzan to win
Tuesday 11th July