Galling yesterday as our strongly fancied selection was a non-runner for the second straight occasions and our next best travelled like a dream into the home straight at Chester, going odds-on in-running before being touched off. Back to it on Friday with two overpriced runners.
To many, 3-year-old only handicaps are the worst races to bet on. Unexposed horses who have been shrewdly campaigned in order to obtain a favourable handicap mark to start their racing life from. However, when you know which trainers excel in these races, it can help make the murky waters a little clearer. Amanda Perrett is one of those trainers whose runners often start their handicap careers off lenient marks, and her runner Open Wide seems to have been underestimated by the bookmakers. The Invincible Spirit gelding was a last time out winner and makes seasonal reappearance after a 214 day absence. Available at odds of +1400 with Ladbrokes and Coral, he is a nice each-way bet.
Open Wide started his career last season with two moderate efforts. Finished 7th on his first couple of runs, hitting RPR’s of 62 and 60 in the process. On his third run, the horse was dropped in trip to 6 furlongs and went off at odds of +1000 , scoring with plenty in hand as he went away at the finish. If Perrett had chosen to give the horse a ‘quiet run’ then he would be starting handicaps off a mark in the mid 60’s, but as it stands, on the back of his victory, the horse is now rated 79.
Open Wide is by Invincible Spirit, and that gives further cause for optimism. He makes his first all-weather start and the sire’s offspring tend to do best on artificial surfaces. Amanda Perrett’s runners who have had 3 starts in maiden company and are switching to handicap company are 22/152 (14.5%) for £45 LSP, with the runners winning 56% more often than they should be based on odds.
Angel Of The South might be from one of the less sexy stables, but that works to our advantage as Dean Ivory’s runner is available at odds of +650 with BetVictor and William Hill. The horse put in a highly encouraging debut effort at Windsor in a novice race and with that run under her belt, she should go very close.
Dean Ivory excels with sprinters, but isn’t renowned for first time out winners. The daughter of Dark Angel was to the forefront of the market on debut at Windsor and showed a tonne of ability, demonstrating plenty of early speed and track craft, just being outgunned in the closing stages, eventually finishing second. The race has worked out exceptionally well, with the winner, third and fourth all scoring on their next runs. Ivory has his filly entered in some valuable contests towards the end of the season so clearly holds her in high regard.
Ivory’s runners running over less than a mile, are turned out within 8 weeks of previous run, and are fancied in the betting in May-December do very well; 142/851 (17%) for £58 LSP, with his horses winning 30% more often than they should do based on odds.
The dogs are barking for the Roger Varian trained Madeline, who is currently the market leader. This un-raced Kodiac filly looks a likely type on paper, but she will have to be pretty smart to win first time out.
15:55 Lingfield – Open Wide (each way)
Friday 12th May
18:05 Ascot – Angel of the South to win
Friday 12th May