Another fantastic day for us yesterday as Roy’s Legacy drifted like a barge but still managed to make about all over Chelmsford’s 5-furlong track, eventually winning by 1 length at juicy odds of 13.0. Our other selection didn’t cut too much ice, finishing a fairly remote fifth, but we still pocketed a very healthy 11 point profit on the day. Let us hope that can be replicated today with another two selections.
Newcastle has to be considered one of the best all-weather tracks to bet at, as there are rarely trouble in running stories. The long, and wide straight means the best horse usually wins and in the class 4, 10-furlong handicap race, we hope that runner happens to be the Alan Swinbank trained Lopes Dancer. A last time out winner over course and distance, the horse has been given a 23 day break and looks like he may have more to give.
Lopes Dancer went into the race at Newcastle last time out as an 8-race maiden, and went off at odds of +600 . Despite pulling a little hard early, the horse travelled smoothly and pulled away in the latter stages, winning by just over 2 lengths. The step up in trip definitely suited, but perhaps the switch to the all-weather locked the most improvement, as Swinbank’s runner had never encountered an artificial surface at the race course before. Alan Swinbank runners who won their last race on the all-weather and are returning to the same surface have a fantastic record; 20/50 (40%) for £21 LSP, giving an A/E of -233 .
There is some stiff competition, with Swinbank being represented by another runner, who at the early odds, is better fancied. Codeshare is the name, and the horse is partnered by William Buick. Was trying to complete the hat-trick last time out over 12 furlongs, but pulled too hard and didn’t have anything left in the closing stages. Form is strong and the horse’s running style suggests that he could benefit from the drop in trip, but you never know until you try it, and Codeshare is an unexposed horse on the surface. Take the +550 about Lopes Dancer with SkyBet and BetVictor.
Airshow is an interesting runner in the 5 furlong, 2 year old contest at Bath, and rates some value at odds of +350 . Rod Millman is a shrewd operator and there are plenty of reasons to think that this horse should in fact be starting as the market leader. The son of Showcasing made his debut just 7 days ago, and finished third in a useful looking novice contest at Leicester. Wore the hood on debut and retains that headgear, and should have come on plenty from his initial racecourse experience.
Airshow displayed greenness on debut, which is pretty common for 2 year old runners, and he started slowly. It took a while, but the horse eventually got the message and stayed on through rivals to finish third. Rod Millman has a fantastic record with his second time out 2 year olds when they are fancied in the betting (20/1 or shorter); 14/55 (25%) for £52 LSP, giving an A/E of +140 .
Again, there are some interesting rivals, with the market leader being the Richard Hannon trained Zalshah. Very well bred, the horse will have to be smart to win this, with other horses such as the once raced Last Page and newcomer Chagatai also likely to put up stern resistance. Airshow has a good draw in stall 5 and should be able to put his experience to good use. In our book, he should be at most a +250 chance, and at odds of +350 with BetVictor, Coral and SkyBet we are getting some nice betting value.
16:25 Newcastle – Lopes Dancer To Win
Friday 14th April
17:00 Bath – Airshow To Win
Friday 14th April
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