Odds against Premier League Leader Are Foxy

Leicester are odds-against to beat Southampton on Saturday.

Leicester are odds-against to beat Southampton on Saturday.

For those of you who do not know the basics of football odds compiling, odds of 2.21 about a home team imply that it is equal to that of its guest. There is no logical argument that Southampton is equal to Leicester, with six rungs and a huge 19 points separating the sides on the English Premier League ladder with each team having seven matches to play.

According to one’s English Premier League collateral form analysis, Leicester enjoys a 11-5-3 lead over Southampton, including a 2-2 draw in October’s reverse fixture – one does note that it took a Jamie Vardy brace, the second of which he put in the onion bag in stoppage time, for the Foxes to fight back from trailing 0-2 inside 37 minutes. Moreover, Leicester has outperformed Southampton versus most of the English Premier League’s top teams – the Foxes boasts a 4-0-1 advantage when one only counts the results of games involving the top five sides – so one believes that the bookmaking fraternity has erred with its weekend odds.

The pressure may end up getting to Leicester but one cannot let the Foxes go unbacked at odds of +121  with Marathonbet to beat Southampton at the King Power Stadium on Saturday.

If bookmakers were listing Leicester at odds of +100  then, maybe, one would have omitted the Foxes from one’s list of English Premier League punts. But odds of +121  are insulting to what Leicester has achieved under Claudio Ranieri and it is not as though Southampton is one of the English Premier League’s best away teams – the Saints are 5-5-5 on the road and they have yet to threaten a top side on their travels.

There is little risk of Southampton parking the bus at the King Power Stadium because the Saints really have strive for three points if they want to stay in the race for a place in either the UEFA Champions League or the UEFA Europa League next season. So Leicester should encounter a Southampton team that does not put 10 men behind the ball, something against which it struggled at home to Norwich and West Bromwich. Leicester is a few rolls over its true odds.

West Ham beat Crystal Palace 3-1 at Selhurst Park when the London sides met in English Premier League action in October and one likes the odds available about the Hammers doing the divisional double over the Eagles in Saturday’s rematch.

Admittedly, it took until the 88th minute for West Ham to make its extra man count against Crystal Palace when the sides met earlier in the English Premier League season so one cannot go overboard about that result. However, West Ham’s English Premier League collateral form edge over Crystal Palace stands at 11-1-7 and Marathonbet is offering odds of +101  about the Hammers continuing their good run.

West Ham is 3-4-0 in its last seven games across all events, whereas Crystal Palace has not tasted English Premier League success since it won 2-1 at Stoke just before Christmas.

Talking of Stoke, the Potters appeal at odds of +123  with Marathonbet to post an English Premier League home victory over Swansea at the Britannia Stadium on Saturday.

Stoke won October’s English Premier League reverse fixture by a 1-0 margin – Bojan Krkic converted a fourth-minute penalty kick – and one’s raw collateral form figures are somewhat misleading. Stoke and Swansea are tied at 8-3-8 according to one’s full English Premier League collateral form analysis but the Potters have done considerably better versus the division’s leading lights than the Swans.

Finally, here are one’s English Premier League collateral form analysis results for every one of Round 32’s 10 matches. The asterisk signifies the direct head-to-head winner.

Aston Villa 3-1-15* versus Chelsea
Arsenal 11*-3-5 versus Watford
Bournemouth 3-4-12* versus Manchester City
Norwich 11-2-6* versus Newcastle
Stoke 8*-3-8 versus Swansea
Sunderland 8-0-11* versus West Bromwich
West Ham 11*-1-7 versus Crystal Palace
Liverpool 6*-4-9 versus Tottenham
Leicester 11*-5-3 versus Southampton
Manchester United 9*-2-8 versus Everton

Tips Summary

Leicester to beat Southampton
Sunday 3rd April, 13:30 GMT
Odds:  +121

West Ham to beat Crystal Palace
Saturday 2nd April, 15:00 GMT
Odds:  +101

Stoke to beat Swansea
Saturday 2nd April, 15:00 GMT
Odds:  +123