Liverpool has had the wood on Tottenham in recent years and one expects the Reds to continue their dominance of Spurs when they clash in Saturday’s UEFA Champions League final.
One of the beauties of this season’s UEFA Champions League title decider between two English teams is there are no shortage of form references. Liverpool finished the English Premier League’s 38 rounds with 97 points, 26 points more than Tottenham. To put that into context, the English Premier League points gap between Liverpool and Tottenham was exactly the same as that between Spurs and Bournemouth.
One’s English Premier League collateral form analysis backs up the raw ladder with Liverpool enjoying a 12-5-2 lead over Tottenham, including progressive counts of 4-0-0, 5-1-0, 7-1-2 and 11-2-2. Those English Premier League collateral form numbers mean Liverpool outperformed Tottenham versus Manchester City, Chelsea and Arsenal as well as having the better of their direct head-to-head clashes. The only two English Premier League sides against which Liverpool fared worse than Tottenham were Everton and Leicester and it is not as though the Reds were poor versus the Toffees and the Foxes, accruing four points from their respective duels.
Liverpool is available at close to even money to get the better of Tottenham in the UEFA Champions League final without requiring extra time and/or penalties. Given the statistics cited in the previous two paragraphs, bookmakers are entitled to quote Liverpool at odds on so one’s main pick is the Reds to lead Spurs at the end of normal time.
TOP TIP! – Liverpool to beat Tottenham 19/201.95-1050.95-1.050.95 with Bet365
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TOP TIP! – Tottenham to take more corner kicks than Liverpool 5/23.50+2502.502.50-0.40
The early team news favours Liverpool over Tottenham. Naby Keita is Liverpool’s only confirmed injury absentee due to his groin problem, whereas no fewer than five Tottenham players are listed as doubtful, including Harry Kane. The temptation will be for Tottenham coach Mauricio Pochettino to recall Harry Kane because the FIFA World Cup Golden Boot winner has returned to training in the lead up to the Madrid match but the Spurs striker has not played since limping off 58 minutes into his team’s 1-0 UEFA Champions League quarter-final first-leg home win over Manchester City.
In terms of UEFA Champions League exotics, the obvious value bet is Tottenham to take more corner kicks than Liverpool at 5/23.50+2502.502.50-0.40 with BetVictor. Clearly some bookmakers have leaned heavily on their UEFA Champions League final winner odds in framing their corner kicks lines and that may end up being a costly mistake. For example, Tottenham took more corner kicks in one of its two games against Liverpool this term and Spurs have won that statistical argument twice in the last four encounters.
One suspects a popular UEFA Champions League wager will be both sides to score. Both teams have found the back of the net in each of the last eight UEFA Champions League finals and such a bet has paid dividends in each of the last four matches between Liverpool and Tottenham. But whereas one is confident Liverpool will celebrate at least one goal at the home stadium of Atletico Madrid, one fears for Tottenham’s attack if Pochettino gambles on Kane and the Spurs forward feels the effects of missing nearly two months of action.
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Carl is the original ‘Special One’ and uses his statistical knowledge of football to gain the upper hand over the bookies on a weekly basis. A student of odds and probabilities, ‘Wrighty’ pinpoints the value bets in the top leagues across Europe. A big signing for the SBO.net sports team, Carl brings his vast experience of playing the odds and beating the bookies to a weekly column highlighting the very best football bets.
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