Don’t Shy Away From Premier League Road Favourites
There are some punters who do not believe in backing odds-on favourites away from home but one judges every match on its merits and one is convinced that Arsenal is overpriced to beat Swansea in the English Premier League on Saturday.
Swansea’s bounce under its new manager, Paul Clement, lasted one game and, in light of the well travelled coach’s poor record managing Derby in the English Championship, one is not expecting him to save the Swans from English Premier League relegation. Clement may be one of those guys who performs better as an assistant than as the top man.
The gaps between the English Premier League haves and have nots is getting wider and wider. Swansea is 4-3-13 in the English Premier League and its victories have come at the expense of Burnley, Crystal Palace (twice) and Sunderland – three of the relegation candidates. Swansea is 0-2-9 in its 11 English Premier League matches versus top-11 teams.
Arsenal’s English Premier League goal difference is the opposite of that of Swansea – the Gunners are on plus 22, whereas the Swansea are on minus 22. Mohamed Elneny is on CAF Africa Cup of Nations duty but the Egypt midfielder’s absence is one that Arsenal can cover thanks to the depth of its squad. Elneny has started only six of Arsenal’s 20 English Premier League games so he is far from essential.
Swansea and Arsenal have played every English Premier League side at least once and, according to one’s collateral form analysis, the Swans trail the Gunners 1-2-16 – Everton is the only team on the relegation contender’s side of the ledger. Arsenal, which defeated Swansea 3-2 in October’s reverse English Premier League fixture despite playing more than 20 minutes with one fewer player, is available at odds of -200 with several bookmakers, including Betfred and SkyBet, to prevail at Swansea’s Liberty Stadium.
Leicester will be without Algeria forwards Riyad Mahrez and Islam Slimani for its English Premier League match at home to Chelsea on Saturday so one is going to oppose the title holder, which is 15th on the ladder following 20 rounds.
The English Premier League champion can ill afford to miss the services of Mahrez and Slimani, particularly against a Chelsea team that boasts the division’s stingiest road defence – the Blues have conceded just nine away goals.
According to one’s English Premier League collateral form analysis, Leicester trails Chelsea 3-4-12 and that includes a comfortable 3-0 win for the Blues over the Foxes in their October clash, a game that was over in terms of a contest when Eden Hazard made it 2-0 in its 33rd minute.
Many bookmakers, including BoyleSports and Paddy Power, are listing Chelsea at odds of -161 to consolidate its position at the top of the English Premier League ladder with an away triumph over a heavily weakened Leicester side.
Finally, Bournemouth merits favouritism for its English Premier League road match versus Hull on Saturday. One cannot comprehend why Marco Silva thought that it was a good idea to resume his managerial career with the Tigers because the odds are stacked against them avoiding the dreaded drop.
Bournemouth is inconsistent – for example, it has beaten Liverpool and Everton at home but lost to Southampton and Sunderland at the same venue – but, according to one’s English Premier League collateral form analysis, the Cherries enjoy an 11-4-4 advantage over Hull. And, of course, Bournemouth hammered Hull 6-1 in the reverse divisional fixture three months ago when five different Cherries players got on the Vitality Stadium scoreboard.
Arsenal to beat Swansea
Saturday 14th January, 15:00 GMT
Chelsea to beat Leicester
Saturday 14th January, 17:30 GMT
Bournemouth to beat Hull
Saturday 14th January, 15:00 GMT