Chelsea broke – no, shattered – the heart of one of its favourite sons on Tuesday and it would take a brave punter to bet against the Blues repeating the trick on Saturday.
A 5-0 UEFA Champions League Group H away win over Roberto Di Matteo’s Schalke qualified Chelsea for the last 16 of UEFA’s primary club competition and made it 19 games without defeat for the Blues this season. Gus Poyet’s Sunderland is next on Chelsea’s agenda and odds of -227 with several bookmakers, including Bet365 and Betfred, about the Blues winning at the Stadium of Light are more than acceptable.
Sunderland has not well against the English Premier League’s highly ranked sides this term, losing 0-8 at second-placed Southampton, drawing 1-1 at home to fourth-placed Manchester United, drawing 0-0 at home to seventh-placed Swansea and losing 0-2 at home to eighth-placed Arsenal. Sunderland’s early English Premier League schedule has been softer than most and, therefore, it is somewhat falsely positioned in 14th place. The reality is that Sunderland is a genuine English Premier League relegation candidate and that it should slide to a home defeat when Chelsea comes to town.
Actually, Sunderland had the better of Chelsea across their three league and cup clashes last season, with the away teams winning the English Premier League meetings and the Black Cats eliminating the Blues from the English Capital One Cup after extra time at the Stadium of Light. Chelsea, though, is a different animal this term and one would not be surprised if Blues coaches and players have spoken privately about going through the English Premier League unbeaten. One thinks that Chelsea is worthy of one’s trust at odds on.
Saturday’s English Premier League relegation six-pointer between Burnley and Aston Villa screams under two and a half goals, with Ladbrokes accommodating punters at odds of -143 .
Burnley’s 12 English Premier League matches have had a mean of 2.33 goals, with five of them going under two and a half goals. Aston Villa’s 12 English Premier League matches have had a division-low mean of 1.92 goals, with seven of them going under two and a half goals and no game featuring the Villans having more than three goals. Aston Villa (six goals) and Burnley (eight goals) are the English Premier League’s lowest scorers, the only teams in single digits.
Finally, Queens Park Rangers and Leicester are two of the English Premier League’s best behaved sides so getting short of cards in their Loftus Road match could be a money spinner once bookmakers get around to posting their cards markets.
Queens Park Rangers has received 17 yellow cards in its 12 English Premier League games, while matches featuring the Super Hoops have had a total of 39 yellow cards. Leicester has received 17 yellow cards in its 12 English Premier League games, while matches featuring the Foxes have had a total of 31 yellow cards and one red card. Using 10 points per yellow card and 25 points per red card, the card points average of their 24 English Premier League games has been 30.21, which is extremely low for the division.
English Premier League bosses have appointed Roger East to referee Queens Park Rangers versus Leicester on Saturday. East made his English Premier League refereeing debut in 2012 and he has controlled 12 top-flight matches, showing 35 yellow cards and four red cards for a cards points average of 37.50. Getting short of cards points at, say, 40, 45 or 50 would be an interesting exotic play on the game.
Update – BetBright have set the bar at -105 for Under 30 points, and +275 for 31-46 points. There’s a case for backing both, so I wouldn’t put you off either, but we’re going to go for the 31-46 option at the better price.
Burnley v Aston Villa Under 2.5 goals
29th November 15:00 GMT
Where to Bet: Ladbrokes
QPR v Leicester Card Index 31-46
29th November 15:00 GMT
Where to Bet: BetBright
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