Bet on Premier League Also Rans Sharing the Spoils

Burnley v Middlesbrough was a Championship game last season.

Speculating on a trio of draws is the best way to attack the Boxing Day set of English Premier League games, with one winner guaranteeing a profit over the festive period.

At first glance, Middlesbrough looks like a false favourite for its match at Burnley because Boro have beaten only one team above it on the English Premier League ladder and the Clarets are 5-1-3 at Turf Moor, including home wins over the Merseyside duo, Liverpool and Everton.

But Middlesbrough and Burnley have had 16 common English Premier League opponents and, according to one’s collateral form analysis, Boro enjoy an 11-0-5 advantage over the Clarets. Therefore, one can understand why bookmakers respect Middlesbrough for the Boxing Day clash but one cannot pull the trigger on Aitor Karanka’s low-scoring side.

Invariably, when there is an away favourite that is too short, the value lies in backing the draw. Several bookmakers, including Bet365, Marathonbet and Paddy Power, are listing odds of +220  about Burnley and Middlesbrough sharing the English Premier League points on Boxing Day and that stands out as being a sound bet at an attractive price. Burnley and Middlesbrough have scored 16 English Premier League goals apiece so, if you are looking for even bigger odds, dutching 0-0 and 1-1 correct scores generates a wager that has the potential to pay a dividend of +273 .

Everton has outperformed Leicester in the English Premier League but the bottom line is that neither team is playing sufficiently well to warrant support when there are longer odds available about the Toffees and the Foxes drawing.

The most overrated side on the top half of the English Premier League ladder, Everton is one of the division’s out-of-form teams as more and more people wise up to the Toffees and the fact that their fast start owed a lot to their relatively benign early schedule. When the English Premier League going got tough, Everton began sliding down the ladder.

Leicester is on course to make the worst English title defence since Leeds in the early 1990s. Leicester has not handled the departure of N’Golo Kante well – he was the most influential Foxes player last season – and three of its four English Premier League home wins have come over Burnley, Crystal Palace and Swansea – three of the division’s big strugglers.

According to one’s English Premier League collateral form analysis, which is based on Leicester and Everton having run into 16 identical sides, the Foxes trail the Toffees 5-4-7. One does not have an issue with how bookmakers have rated both Leicester and Everton but, as is so often the case in such instances, the Boxing Day draw is overpriced at odds of +240  with many bookmakers, including Betfred.

BetVictor, SkyBet and William Hill are offering odds of +250  about the English Premier League game between Swansea and West Ham on Boxing Day ending all square and one would rather back the draw than either the Swans or the Irons.

Swansea and West Ham have had 16 common English Premier League opponents and, according to one’s collateral form analysis, the Swans are behind the Irons by a 5-2-9 margin.

One thinks that West Ham is a fair bit superior to Swansea but the Irons are 1-2-5 on the road in the English Premier League and their one victory was at 17th-placed Crystal Palace.

Swansea is one of the English Premier League’s weakest links – it has not beaten a team ranked higher than 16th – so it is easy to pass over both the Swans and West Ham when there are so much more attractive odds on offer about the draw.

Tips Summary

Burnley and Middlesbrough to Draw
Monday 26th December, 15:00 GMT
Odds:  +220

Leicester and Everton to Draw
Monday 26th December, 15:00 GMT
Odds:  +240

Swansea and West Ham to Draw
Monday 26th December, 15:00 GMT
Odds:  +250

Premier League
West Ham

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