Back the Foals to be glad to be back


The German Bundesliga is back following its six-week winter break and the highlight is the top-of-the-table game between Wolfsburg and Bayern Munchen at the Volkswagen Arena.

One thinks that there is an exotic angle to the match of the German Bundesliga round but that bookmakers have priced up the game result market correctly. It is hard to argue with Bayern Munchen being odds on when it has conceded just four German Bundesliga goals in the first 17 championship rounds and it defeated Wolfsburg 2-1 at the Allianz Arena.

More about the German Bundesliga exotic later but one thinks that Monchengladbach represents the best mainstream value at odds of +155  with Boylesports to beat Stuttgart on the road.

Monchengladbach is fourth on the German Bundesliga ladder and one’s collateral form analysis – the competition is at its halfway stage so every team has played every other side – supports the simple view that the Foals are superior to Stuttgart. Monchengladbach and Stuttgart have had 16 common German Bundesliga opponents and one’s opinion is that 11 of those collateral form lines favour the Foals and five favour their host on Saturday. Monchengladbach’s collateral form edge is the most substantial of the German Bundesliga round, while Stuttgart’s league home record is the worst in the division – it is hard to win matches when your attack has four home goals to show for its eight home appearances.

Leverkusen will be without one of its regular attackers, Son Heung-min, because of his AFC Asian Cup commitments with the Korea Republic but one’s German Bundesliga collateral form analysis points to third-placed Bayer being over the odds to get the better of 17th-placed Dortmund on Saturday.

It was Leverkusen that kick started Dortmund’s catastrophic German Bundesliga season, winning 2-0 at Signal Iduna Park thanks to first- and last-minute goals in the first round. One acknowledges that Dortmund is occupying a false position on the German Bundesliga ladder – its UEFA Champions League displays are not that of a domestic relegation contender – but there is no logical reason why Leverkusen is as big as odds of +145  with BetVictor to beat Jurgen Klopp’s team.

Leverkusen and Dortmund have had 16 common German Bundesliga opponents and one’s view is that nine of those collateral form lines favour Bayer, five favour BVB and two favour neither side. All things considered, Leverkusen should be around the 2.00 mark to win its German Bundesliga home game versus Dortmund and backing Bayer is a clear-cut value play.

Usually one likes to pick out three match bets but one is not keen to get involved in any of the other seven German Bundesliga games – none of their odds leap off the coupon.

With regards to German Bundesliga exotics, the match between Wolfsburg and Bayern Munchen pits the two best behaved teams against each other. Wolfsburg has collected 18 yellow cards and one red card in its 17 German Bundesliga games, while Bayern Munchen has collected 12 yellow cards and no red cards over the same number of matches. And it is not as though Bayern Munchen does most of its dirty work on the road – the German Bundesliga champion has collected only five yellow cards in its eight games away from home.

Of course, one must check the data of the referee before betting on the German Bundesliga match between Wolfsburg and Bayern Munchen – league staff had got around to publishing the appointment details at the time of publication – but two of the three elements for an unders cards bet are present, while there is an argument for backing under two and a half goals in the game between Hamburg and Koln at odds of -149  with Boylesports. Hamburg’s 17 German Bundesliga matches have had a league-low average of 1.65 and Koln’s 17 German Bundesliga matches have had a next-lowest average of 2.35 goals. Twelve of Hamburg’s 17 German Bundesliga games have gone under two and a half goals and Koln’s record on that line is 9-8. Hamburg and Koln played out a 0-0 draw when they met in the opening round of the German Bundesliga.

Tips Summary

Monchengladbach to beat Stuttgart
31st January 14:00 GMT
Odds:  +155
Where to Bet: Boylesports

Leverkusen to beat Dortmund
31st January 17:30 GMT
Odds:  +145
Where to Bet: BetVictor

Bayern Munich v Wolfsburg – Unders Card Index
30th January 19:30 GMT
Odds: TBC*
Where to Bet: TBC

*Bet365 offering Under 3.5 cards at -149  but we’re hoping for a better price than that.

Bayern Munich
Jurgen Klopp
Signal Iduna Park

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