The odds for Friday night’s Bundesliga opener do not make sense on any level other than Hoffenheim is a lesser name than Dortmund. Hoffenheim is the German Bundesliga’s only unbeaten team after 14 rounds and its home record is 4-3-0 following victories over Hertha, Koln, Freiburg and Schalke and draws with Leipzig, Wolfsburg and Hamburg. Hoffenheim has played everyone in the German Bundesliga top dozen except for its weekend opponent.
Dortmund is one point worse off than Hoffenheim following 14 German Bundesliga rounds and the primary reason why it is not hot on the heels of Bayern Munchen at the top of the ladder is its porous defence, particularly away from home. Dortmund has leaked 12 goals in its seven German Bundesliga road matches and it has failed to keep a clean sheet on its travels, including conceding multiple goals at Frankfurt, Leverkusen, Hamburg and Ingolstadt. Dortmund has not won away to a German Bundesliga side ranked higher than 15th, however, bookmakers rate them at odds on to get the chocolates versus its upcoming undefeated host.
One’s German Bundesliga collateral form analysis backs up the ladder. Hoffenheim and Dortmund have had 14 common German Bundesliga foes and, according to one’s number crunching, TSV boasts a 6-3-5 lead over BVB, an edge that stands at an even greater 5-3-2 if one excludes results involving the division’s four lowest positioned teams.
The manner in which bookmakers are betting on the German Bundesliga round opener suggests that Dortmund is several notches better than Hoffenheim but there is nothing in the data that one has cited above to support that view. One accepts that Dortmund is likely to finish above Hoffenheim but one cannot have BVB at odds on in the circumstances.
Hoffenheim is yet to lose a German Bundesliga game this season but Bet365 is offering odds of +115 that it does suffer defeat at home to Dortmund on Friday.
Leipzig relinquished the German Bundesliga leadership in the 14th round when it lost 0-1 at Ingolstadt against the run of play. Leipzig will entertain Hertha on Saturday in a German Bundesliga game that pits second versus third in the east.
The three German Bundesliga sides that Leipzig is yet to face are first-placed Bayern Munchen, third-placed Hertha and fifth-placed Frankfurt so one could argue the Red Bull-backed team may be flattered by its second place.
However, according to one’s German Bundesliga collateral form analysis, Leipzig and Hertha have run into 12 of the same sides and the former holds a 5-4-3 advantage over the latter. Hertha has performed well in Berlin but the Old Lady have struggled away from the capital city, failing to post a German Bundesliga road victory over any team outside the bottom four. That is what is holding back Hertha from challenging for the German Bundesliga championship.
Betfair is listing odds of +250 about Leipzig registering a one-goal German Bundesliga home win over Hertha. That price makes more appeal that taking the relatively short odds about Leipzig defeating Hertha.
Finally, Marathonbet are quoting attractive odds of -143 about Sunday’s German Bundesliga match between Wolfsburg and Frankfurt going under two and a half goals.
Wolfsburg has managed just four goals in its seven German Bundesliga home games and the Wolves are far cry from the side that featured towards the top of the ladder in recent years. Wolfsburg is coming off a 0-5 German Bundesliga loss at Bayern Munchen so one thinks that the Wolves will have spent this week working on their defensive structures.
Frankfurt’s fifth position on the German Bundesliga ladder owes much to its defence, which ranks second overall and first on the road. Only 12 goals have been netted in Frankfurt’s seven German Bundesliga away matches and five of them have gone under two and a half goals. The very best German Bundesliga teams have scored against Frankfurt but the mediocre ones, such as Wolfsburg, have not thrived.
Hoffenheim or Draw
Friday 16th December, 19:30 GMT
Leipzig to beat Hertha by a one-goal margin
Saturday 17th December, 14:30 GMT
Wolfsburg v Frankfurt – Under 2.5 Goals
Saturday 17th December, 17:30 GMT