Bookmakers are continuing to show very little respect to the undefeated German Bundesliga record of Hoffenheim and that is great because it enables one to pick the fifth-ranked team on the draw-no-bet market for its game at Augsburg.
Hoffenheim is one win or draw away from reaching the halfway mark of the German Bundesliga season without losing a match, something that proved beyond each of its 17 divisional foes. Hoffenheim is 6-10-0 under its remarkable manager, Julian Nagelsmann, and it did not slack off during the German Bundesliga winter break, racking up friendly wins over Groningen, AaB and Sonnehof Grossaspach. That Hoffenheim kept its motor humming during the compulsory German Bundesliga shutdown is a positive and means that one believes that it will not suffer a New Year hangover.
Augsburg is 12th on the German Bundesliga ladder but it is yet to post a victory over a side ranked higher than 14th having only beaten Monchengladbach, Bremen, Ingolstadt and Darmstadt. It is a relief for Augsburg fans that they are many more obvious German Bundesliga relegation candidates than their team even though they are distinctly ordinary.
Hoffenheim and Augsburg have lined up against every German Bundesliga side except each other. According to one’s German Bundesliga collateral form analysis, Hoffenheim enjoys a 9-3-4 advantage over Augsburg and most of the former’s successes are towards the top of the 18-team ladder.
Marathonbet is offering odds of -114 about Hoffenheim versus Augsburg on the draw-no-bet market that will refund stakes if the German Bundesliga game ends all square. Augsburg does not strike one as the German Bundesliga side that is going to stop Hoffenheim’s unbeaten run in its tracks on Saturday.
German Bundesliga second Leipzig is entitled to favouritism for its home match against fellow high flier Frankfurt.
Leipzig, which thrashed Rangers 4-0 in a friendly last week, is shaping as Bayern Munchen’s greatest German Bundesliga title threat after collecting 36 points from its first 16 games. Leipzig is 6-1-0 in its seven German Bundesliga home matches and its victims include third-placed Hertha and sixth-placed Dortmund, perhaps the division’s biggest underachiever. Leipzig is strong in defence and attack, making it hard to quibble with its high positioning.
Frankfurt is not far behind Leipzig on the German Bundesliga ladder but it has not defeated a fellow top-five team in spite of playing three of them on home turf. According to one’s German Bundesliga collateral form analysis, Leipzig boasts a 7-5-4 edge over Frankfurt and that, allied to the former’s home results and the latter’s away data, is more than enough for several bookmakers, including BoyleSports, Coral and William Hill getting some business at odds of -149 . Frankfurt’s three German Bundesliga away wins have occurred versus Bremen, Hamburg and Ingolstadt, which are three of the bottom four sides following 16 rounds.
Dortmund is missing only one player but it is its primary goal scorer, Gabon striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. Now one accepts that Dortmund has good strength in depth and that, on paper, it should be too strong for Bremen but betting is all about obtaining value. Bremen has lost just one of its eight German Bundesliga home matches by two or more goals, while Dortmund has only covered such a line twice in its eight divisional away games.
Hoffenheim to Win (Draw No Bet)
Saturday 21st January, 14:30 GMT
Leipzig to beat Frankfurt
Saturday 21st January, 17:30 GMT
Bremen +2 to beat Dortmund
Saturday 21st January, 14:30 GMT