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Sampdoria to maintain unbeaten home record with a win

April 16, 2015


The best bet in the 31st round of Italian Serie A games is Sampdoria to beat Cesena on Saturday, an option that is trading at odds of 1.62 with Betfred and Totesport.

The Italian Serie A match pits one of the division’s two teams yet to lose at home against one of the division’s two teams with just one away victory to its credit. Sampdoria has won seven and drawn seven of its 14 Italian Serie A home matches, with no side in the bottom six avoiding defeat on its visit to the Luigi Ferraris. No Italian Serie A has played fewer home games than Sampdoria so it harbours a realistic shot at finishing the season in fourth place.

Cesena is 18th on the Italian Serie A ladder, seven points adrift of safety with eight rounds remaining. Cesena has Italian Serie A’s second worst away record of one win, four draws and nine losses. Dig deeper and one finds that Cesena has not collected a single Italian Serie A away point from a team in the top nine – Sampdoria is sixth, seven points in front in ninth-placed Milan. For all that Cesena needs the points to prolong its Italian Serie A membership, one cannot see anything other than a Sampdoria win. That Cesena has no choice other than to play for three points should assist Sampdoria insomuch that the Seahorses cannot defend for 90 minutes – a draw is not going to help them stay up.

Sampdoria drew 1-1 at Cesena when the sides met in Italian Serie A action five months ago. Sampdoria’s home record is sufficient for one to believe that it can win on Saturday.

Like Cesena, Cagliari is an Italian Serie A team for which draws are not going to keep it in the top flight. Cagliari is eight points below the Italian Serie A red line and one can sum up its desperation to retain its top-flight status in two words: Zdenek Zeman. It is remarkable that Cagliari sacked Zeman in December and reappointed him in March.

The first Italian Serie A match between Cagliari and Napoli produced six goals, with punters who backed over two and a half goals collecting their winnings before half time. One sees no reason to expect a markedly different style of game when Cagliari hosts Napoli on Sunday so one is keen on the odds of 1.72 that 888Sport and Unibet are offering about the match going over two and a half goals.

Nineteen of Cagliari’s 30 Italian Serie A games have gone over two and a half goals, including 11 of its 15 home matches – those statistics rank the Red and Blues second and equal first respectively. Fifteen of Napoli’s 30 Italian Serie A games have gone over two and a half goals, a tally that only five sides have exceeded. Napoli’s Italian Serie A away numbers are not compelling but one is talking about a road match at Cagliari so one is confident that the Blues will fight fire with fire because there is no secret as to how the Red and Blues are going to play under Zeman.

Finally, goals may be in short supply when Roma, desperate to get back ahead of city rival Lazio on the Italian Serie A ladder, hosts relegation-threatened Atalanta on Sunday.

Even though Roma is ranked third in Italian Serie A it has been a good friend of under-two-and-a-half goals punters, with 21 of its 30 league games going under the most common betting line, including 10 of its 15 home matches. Ten of Atalanta’s 15 Italian Serie A away games have gone under two and a half goals, helped in no small manner by the Black and Blues netting a division-low nine goals on their travels.

Again it is 888Sport and Unibet who are offering the most attractive odds, with those bookmakers accepting bets at 1.96 that Roma and Atalanta’s Italian Serie A clash goes under two and a half goals. One can see Atalanta playing for a point and forcing Roma to make all the running at home.

Tips Summary

Sampdoria to beat Cesena
18th April 17:00 GMT
Odds: 1.62
Where to Bet: BetfredTotesport

Cagliari v Napoli Over 2.5 goals
19th April 17:00 GMT
Odds: 1.65
Where to Bet: 888SportUnibet

Roma v Atalanta Under 2.5 goals
18th April 14:00 GMT
Odds: 1.96
Where to Bet: 888SportUnibet

  • 888Sport
  • Cagliari
  • Cesena
  • Italian Serie A
  • Sampdoria
  • Unibet
  • Zdenek Zeman

    About the author

    Eric Roberts
    Eric Roberts

    Sports Journalist

    Eric has been a sports journalist for over 20 years and has travelled the world covering top sporting events for a number of publications. He also has a passion for betting and uses his in-depth knowledge of the sports world to pinpoint outstanding odds and value betting opportunities.