Red Shorts to Condemn Lilies to Bundesliga Relegation

Hamburg beat Hoffenheim in their last home Bundesliga outing.

Hamburg is proud of being the German Bundesliga’s only ever present and one thinks that the Red Shorts will go a long way to preserving their top-flight status with a home victory over bottom-of-the-ladder Darmstadt on Saturday.

According to one’s German Bundesliga collateral form analysis, Hamburg holds a 10-2-5 advantage over Darmstadt, including a 2-0 road success for the Red Shorts over the Lilies in December’s reverse fixture. Hamburg is 7-3-4 in its 14 German Bundesliga home matches, including being one of the three teams to beat Hoffenheim. Darmstadt – and this is the killer stat – is 0-0-14 in its 14 German Bundesliga away games, including losing eight of those matches by two or more goals. Darmstadt needs many miracles to remain in the German Bundesliga and ones does not think that the Lilies are going to engineer one at the Volksparkstadion.

One is not getting carried away with Darmstadt’s 2-1 German Bundesliga home win over Schalke last time out – the Lilies trailed the Royal Blues on all bar one of the key statistics and they did not get ahead before Thilo Kehrer’s red card.

One can understand that Marathonbet‘s odds of -217  about a Hamburg home win over Darmstadt may not excite some punters but the Red Shorts are much better than the Lilies, which is likely to have its German Bundesliga relegation confirmed this weekend – they must win each of their remaining five games to have any chance of staying among the elite.

Bremen is the German Bundesliga’s form team and it has as much for which to play as its Saturday opponent, Ingolstadt, which means that one is willing to take a punt on the River Islanders extending their unbeaten run with an away win at +240  with Bet365.

Seven victories and two draws from its last nine German Bundesliga matches have lifted Bremen to the eighth rung on the ladder after the River Islanders were embroiled in the relegation scrap from which several big names, including Hamburg and Wolfsburg, are far from safe with five rounds to go. Alexander Nouri took a while to get to grips with Bremen but the club’s former reserve coach has worked out how to get the best out of the River Islanders squad. If Bremen wins at 17th-placed Ingolstadt this weekend then it could find itself in a UEFA Europa League berth going into its home game versus travel sick Hertha next weekend.

Bremen trails Ingolstadt 6-3-8 on one’s German Bundesliga collateral form analysis but such has been the turnaround in the fortunes of the River Islanders that, for once, one is willing to overlook that piece of data. And, after all, Bremen did win December’s reverse fixture by a 2-1 margin.

Draws are difficult to pick but one thinks that the German Bundesliga match between Schalke and Leipzig on Sunday may end all square at odds of +250  with Bwin.

Schalke will be backing up from UEFA Europa League action at home to Ajax on Thursday so the Royal Blues are unlikely to be at their best when hosting a Leipzig side to which they lost 1-2 when the reverse fixture occurred in December.

According to one’s German Bundesliga collateral form analysis, Leipzig holds a 9-1-7 edge over Schalke but that is not reflected in the betting market – the Red Bulls are too short, particularly as the collateral form ledger is 2-0-2 for games featuring the division’s top four teams.

Tips Summary

Hamburg to beat Darmstadt
Saturday 22nd April, 14:30 BST
Odds:  -217

Bremen to beat Ingoldstadt
Saturday 22nd April, 14:30 BST
Odds:  +240

Schalke and Leipzig to Draw
Sunday 23rd April, 16:30 BST
Odds:  +250

Bundesliga
Hamburg
Leipzig
Schalke
Werder Bremen

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