On what is a difficult German Bundesliga card, one finds it hard to ignore the claims of Hoffenheim against Hamburg.
Hoffenheim’s young manager, Julian Nagelsmann, is the talk of European football for saving the Kraichgauer from German Bundesliga relegation last season and overseeing their climb to third on the ladder 10 rounds into this term’s campaign.
One of three unbeaten German Bundesliga teams, Hoffenheim has won five of its last six divisional matches after each of its first four top-flight games ending all square. On Sunday, Hoffenheim’s 11th German Bundesliga fixture will take place when bottom-of-the-ladder Hamburg visits it.
Hamburg is one of two German Bundesliga sides yet to post a victory and it has lost each of its eight divisional matches versus teams ranked higher than 11th, including six by more than one-goal margins. Hamburg’s attack is the worst in the German Bundesliga and its defence is the division’s second worst. Hamburg is proud of being the only team to play in every German Bundesliga competition but, unless something drastic changes, the Red Shorts are heading for the drop.
Hoffenheim and Hamburg have had six common German Bundesliga opponents and, according to one’s collateral form analysis, the Kraichgauer lead the Red Shorts 6-0-0. That alone is sufficient reason for one to pick Hoffenheim at odds of -161 with Bet365 and Paddy Power to beat Hamburg this weekend.
The most recent clash between Hoffenheim and Hamburg ended in a 3-1 German Bundesliga away triumph for the former in which the Kraichgauer led from the 20th minute onwards.
Dortmund against Bayern Munchen is the German Bundesliga’s big game but one prefers the punting propositions served up by Darmstadt and Leverkusen in their respective matches.
Darmstadt is set for a long, tough battle to remain in the German Bundesliga but so is its Saturday guest, Ingolstadt, and one cannot understand why bookmakers are favouring the winless away side over the home team with a 2-2-6 record.
Like Hoffenheim and Hamburg, Darmstadt and Ingolstadt have run into six identical German Bundesliga sides. According to one’s German Bundesliga collateral form analysis, Darmstadt enjoys a 4-0-2 advantage over Ingolstadt yet bookmakers are listing at underdog odds, with 188Bet and William Hill offering prices of +210 about the underrated Lilies.
Darmstadt is 2-2-1 at home in the German Bundesliga and its loss was a 0-2 reverse to second-placed Leipzig. Ingolstadt has collected just two German Bundesliga points in scoring draws at home to Dortmund and away to horrible Hamburg.
Ingolstadt travelled to Darmstadt towards the end of last season’s German Bundesliga tournament and the Schanzer went home with their tails between their legs after losing 0-2.
One should ignore Leverkusen’s 0-3 German Bundesliga home loss to Hoffenheim because the Factory Team had Kevin Volland sent off in the sixth minute. Leverkusen is 3-1-0 in German Bundesliga home matches excluding the aforementioned game, while Leipzig has not won away to a side ranked higher than 14th on the ladder. One queries the depth of Leipzig’s German Bundesliga and Leverkusen is a strong home team.
Hoffenheim to beat Hamburg
Sunday 20th November, 14:30 GMT
Darmstadt to beat Inglodstadt
Saturday 19th November, 14:30 GMT
Leverkusen to beat Leipzig
Friday 18th November, 19:30 GMT