The German Bundesliga title dream of Leipzig is as good as over but the Red Bulls are a fair bet to consolidate their second ranking with a home defeat of Wolfsburg on Saturday.
Leipzig and Wolfsburg are two of the German Bundesliga’s least liked teams because corporations – Red Bull and Volkswagen respectively – bankroll them. So while German Bundesliga fans have hated watching Leipzig challenge for the championship they have taken great delight in seeing Wolfsburg slide towards the relegation trapdoor.
Twenty-three rounds into the German Bundesliga season and Leipzig has accrued more than double Wolfsburg’s number of points. According to one’s German Bundesliga collateral form analysis, Leipzig holds an 11-3-3 advantage over Wolfsburg and, what is more, the Red Bulls have done much better than the Wolves against the division’s top sides. If one only counts games featuring the German Bundesliga’s leading eight teams then Leipzig enjoys a 6-2-0 collateral form edge over Wolfsburg and that is one of the major reasons why one is tipping the Red Bulls at odds of -161 with Marathonbet.
Leipzig beat Wolfsburg 1-0 in October’s reverse German Bundesliga fixture, Emil Forsberg scoring the only goal of the game for the Red Bulls midway through the second half.
Schalke is beneath Augsburg on the German Bundesliga ladder but one thinks that the standings are not telling the truth about the talents of the Royal Blues and the Fuggerstadter.
Augsburg is one point in front of Schalke on the German Bundesliga ladder but, according to one’s collateral form analysis, the Fuggerstadter trail the Royal Blues 4-4-9. Moreover, Augsburg failed to beat Schalke when the sides clashed in Bavaria five months ago and the Fuggerstadter required a late equaliser to salvage a 1-1 home draw.
Consistency is the strong suit of neither Schalke nor Augsburg but one is convinced that the Royal Blues are superior to the Fuggerstadter. For example, Schalke has taken out three of its nine German Bundesliga home matches versus higher ranked opponents, whereas Augsburg has won just one league game anywhere against such a team. The home side is -120 with William Hill.
One would have picked over two and a half goals in Friday’s German Bundesliga match between Leverkusen and Bremen but one does not know what to expect from the Factory 11 after they parted company with Roger Schmidt. So, instead, one has chosen to wrap up one’s German Bundesliga weekend selections with Hoffenheim at odds of +148 with Marathonbet to collect three points from its visit to Freiburg on Saturday.
One thinks that Hoffenheim should be a hotter favourite than it is for its German Bundesliga game at Freiburg. According to one’s German Bundesliga collateral form analysis, the gap between Hoffenheim and Freiburg is much greater than the raw ladder implies – Hoffe boasts an impressive 13-1-3 lead over the Brazilians of Breisgau. Furthermore, Hoffenheim’s German Bundesliga collateral form edge over Freiburg would be even starker if one excluded matches featuring the division’s relegation candidates. Hoffenheim has proven its mettle versus the cream of the German Bundesliga and it deserves to be more than eight points in front of Freiburg currently.
October’s reverse German Bundesliga fixture resulted in a 2-1 home win for Hoffenheim in which Hoffe did not trail. Hoffenheim is undefeated in its last six games against Freiburg, all of which have been German Bundesliga affairs.
Leipzig to beat Wolfsburg
Saturday 11th March, 14:30 GMT
Schalke to beat Augsburg
Sunday 12th March, 14:30 GMT
Hoffenheim to beat Freiburg
Saturday 11th March, 14:30 GMT