Bookmakers are divided as to which side is likely to win the German Bundesliga without Bayern Munchen but one thinks that there should be no argument as to which is the favourite.
Dortmund is trading at odds of +300 with Bwin, odds that one thinks are far too big to ignore in what shapes as a battle featuring a maximum of three entertaining teams – Wolfsburg, Leverkusen and the eight-time German Bundesliga champion.
Wolfsburg is the favourite of several bookmakers betting on the German Bundesliga without Bayern Munchen. Wolfsburg was second in last season’s German Bundesliga but it finished only three points in front of third-placed Monchengladbach after running out of petrol in the latter stages. Wolfsburg has been active in the transfer market leading into the new German Bundesliga season, with its major acquisition being Max Kruse from Monchengladbach – he was his former side’s top goal scorer last term. But while Wolfsburg has weakened Monchengladbach, one fears that one of Europe’s big clubs will weaken the Wolves by luring away Kevin De Bruyne.
De Bruyne was one of the stars not only of German football but also European football last season, creating so many of Wolfsburg’s goal-scoring chances. No-one is irreplaceable but all the money is the world is unlikely to help Wolfsburg in the short term if De Bruyne leaves the Volkswagen Arena. Factor in the weight of expectation – Wolfsburg is on the radar this term, whereas it accrued many of its German Bundesliga points last season before being taken seriously – and the complication of UEFA Champions League football and one thinks that the Wolves are false favourites in betting without the increasingly unopposable Bayern Munchen.
Leverkusen has a good chance of leapfrogging Monchengladbach on the German Bundesliga ladder this term but that has more to do with the Foals than the Factory Team. Monchengladbach has lost Kruse to Wolfsburg and he was instrumental in its German Bundesliga bronze medal last season. The issue that one has with Leverkusen is that it does not appear to have improved its roster for the new campaign, which makes it vulnerable to a side such as Thomas Tuchel’s Dortmund.
Tuchel did not succeed Jurgen Klopp as Mainz coach but he took the O-Fives to the next level, including fifth spot in the 2010-2011 German Bundesliga and two participations in the UEFA Europa League. Dortmund made a terrific call hiring Klopp and one rates its second straight raiding of Mainz to recruit Tuchel. Dortmund has had an excellent run of games in the lead up to the German Bundesliga kicking off, with its preparatory results including a 2-0 defeat of Juventus.
Dortmund finished last term’s German Bundesliga almost as well as any team – BVB collected 30 points from its last 15 divisional matches, one fewer than Wolfsburg and three fewer than Bayern Munchen and Monchengladbach – in spite of all the drama surrounding the Signal Iduna Park side. For example, the 2015 CAF Africa Cup of Nations meant that Dortmund lost the services of its forward, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, at a key stage of last season. Aubameyang has been central to Dortmund’s strong friendly performances.
Ladbrokes is quoting Dortmund at odds of +162 to win the German Bundesliga without Bayern Munchen. The Ladbrokes offer is the lowest in the international market and one thinks that the Magic Sign is bang on the money. Bwin listing Dortmund at odds of +300 underestimates grossly the probability of BVB being the German Bundesliga’s best of the rest – +300 about the favourite in what one believes is a three-team race is so obviously incorrect that even an incompetent primary school mathematician could see it.
Dortmund to win the league (without Bayern)
Where to Bet: Bwin
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