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Bookmakers are tripping over themselves to avoid laying the best odds about Saturday’s German Bundesliga match between Hertha and Ingolstadt going under two and a half goals.
Seventeen of Hertha’s 26 German Bundesliga matches have gone under two and a half goals, including nine of its 13 home games. If you think that Hertha’s numbers are impressive, wait until you see Ingolstadt’s relevant data. Twenty-one of Ingolstadt’s 26 German Bundesliga matches have gone under two and a half goals, including 12 of its 13 away games – the exception was its inexplicable 0-4 loss at Hannover.
October’s reverse German Bundesliga fixture resulted in a 1-0 away victory for Hertha in a game that featured few clear-cut scoring opportunities. Marathonbet is offering odds of -179 that Hertha and Ingolstadt combine for under two and a half goals again and, using a wide range of statistics, one can construct a very strong argument.
Sometimes such statistically strong goals bets do not pan out but Hertha’s four German Bundesliga home matches that have gone over two and a half goals have been versus Hamburg and three of the division’s teams that skew over that line – Leverkusen, Monchengladbach and Stuttgart. With regards to Ingolstadt against Hannover, the Reds may be bottom of the German Bundesliga but 15 of their 26 games have gone over two and a half goals, including most of their home matches.
One’s second German Bundesliga selection is Friday’s game between Schalke and Monchengladbach to go over two and a half goals at odds of -185 with Marathonbet.
Monchengladbach’s 26 German Bundesliga matches have had an average of 3.65 goals, with 21 of them going over two and a half goals, including 11 of its 14 home games. Fifteen of Schalke’s 26 German Bundesliga matches have gone over two and a half goals, including seven of its 13 away games. Monchengladbach won October’s reverse German Bundesliga fixture 3-1, the Foals and Schalke exceeding two and a half goals inside 70 minutes and scoring a fourth goal to boot.
Generally speaking, the German Bundesliga matches featuring Monchengladbach that have gone under two and a half goals have had an under-two-and-a-half-goals side in opposition – Ingolstadt, Koln, Mainz and Wolfsburg. Schalke is different to those four teams and the Royal Blues have to push for three German Bundesliga points against Monchengladbach because of the state of the ladder following 26 rounds.
According to one’s German Bundesliga collateral form analysis, Mainz boasts a big 12-0-5 advantage over Bremen, including an 8-0-2 edge when one only counts games involving sides ranked in the top 10. What that last German Bundesliga collateral form figure indicates is that Mainz has really outperformed Bremen versus the division’s heavyweights. The knock on backing Mainz is that it lost October’s reverse German Bundesliga fixture 3-1 at home and the O-Fives were 0-3 down until stoppage time. However, Mainz’s odds of +215 make up for that slight issue with one struggling to work out how the O-Fives are not challenging for favouritism.
Finally, here are one’s German Bundesliga collateral form analysis results for every one of Round 27’s nine games. The asterisk signifies the direct head-to-head winner.
Schalke 6-2-9* versus Monchengladbach
Bremen 5*-0-12 versus Mainz
Koln 1-1-15* versus Bayern Munchen
Hamburg 8*-3-6 versus Hoffenheim
Hertha 9*-5-3 versus Ingolstadt
Wolfsburg 8*-4-5 versus Darmstadt
Frankfurt 11*-0-6 versus Hannover
Stuttgart 6-1-10* versus Leverkusen
Augsburg 4-2-11* versus Dortmund
Hertha v Ingoldstadt Under 2.5 Goals
Saturday 19th March, 14:30 GMT
Schalke v Monchengladbach Over 2.5 Goals
Friday 18th March, 19:30 GMT
Mainz to beat Bremen
Saturday 19th March, 14:30 GMT
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