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Some punters steer clear of odds-on away favourites but it is important to judge every bet on its merits and one thinks that Leipzig is deserving of such status against Ingolstadt.
Leipzig is the surprise German Bundesliga leader that many pundits are comparing to last season’s shock English Premier League champion, Leicester. Leipzig is unpopular throughout Germany because of its ownership structure and rapid rise but even its biggest critics are begrudgingly admiring its German Bundesliga results. Leipzig is 10-3-0 following 13 German Bundesliga, placing it three points ahead of Bayern Munchen and 27 points in front of cellar dweller Ingolstadt.
It must be hurting Leipzig manager Ralph Hassenhuttl to see his former team, Ingolstadt, struggling at the foot of the German Bundesliga ladder. Hassenhuttl was the mastermind behind Ingolstadt’s promotion to the German Bundesliga and its survival last term but the Schanzer have gone downhill ever since Leipzig lured the coach with Red Bull’s euros.
Leipzig and Ingolstadt have had 10 common German Bundesliga opponents and, according to one’s collateral form analysis, Hassenhuttl’s new side has outperformed his old side versus each and every single one of them. Ingolstadt may not be the German Bundesliga’s worst team – one suspects that Darmstadt will prop up the ladder at the end of the season – but it is significantly inferior to Leipzig and, if a more fashionable side boasted the table topper’s collateral form figures, it would be even shorter in the betting for Saturday’s match.
Hertha boasts the German Bundesliga’s only 100 per cent home record having defeated Koln, Schalke, Mainz, Freiburg, Monchengladbach and Hamburg at its Berlin base. Hertha is third on the German Bundesliga ladder, 16 points ahead of Bremen, which is positioned 14th with a goal difference of minus 15. Bremen has hit the back of the net in 12 of its 13 German Bundesliga matches but it has not kept a single clean sheet, conceding 20 goals on the road and 32 goals overall.
Like the first German Bundesliga game that one predicted, Hertha and Bremen have lined up against 10 identical foes and, according to one’s collateral form analysis, the data favours one’s selection 10-0-0. There are many statistics that support Hertha being overpriced at odds of -125 to despatch Bremen this weekend. Perhaps bookmakers believe that Hertha is worth risking because Bremen, for all its faults, does tend to score at least one goal per match.
Finally, one likes the chance of Freiburg accruing three German Bundesliga points from its Saturday home game versus a Darmstadt side that is sliding down the ladder fast.
Darmstadt has lost each of its six German Bundesliga away matches, whereas Freiburg is 4-0-2 at home and it has been ruthless in overcoming the division’s lowly ranked teams.
According to one’s German Bundesliga collateral form analysis, Freiburg and Darmstadt have faced 11 common opponents and enjoys the former enjoys a 5-2-4 advantage over the latter. Marathonbet are quoting Freiburg at odds of -137 and, given Darmstadt’s risible road record, the Brazilians of Breisgau are worth supporting.
Leipzig to beat Ingoldstadt
Saturday 10th December, 14:30 GMT
Hertha Berlin to beat Werder Bremen
Saturday 10th December, 17:30 GMT
Freiburg to beat Darmstadt
Saturday 10th December, 14:30 GMT
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