It is the 13th round of the German Bundesliga and one hopes that waiting for Augsburg and Frankfurt to clash in its last game will not be unlucky from a punting perspective.
Augsburg’s 12 German Bundesliga games have had a league-low 24 goals and seven of them have gone under two and a half goals, including four of the six matches played at the Augsburg Arena. Only Wolfsburg has scored fewer German Bundesliga home goals than Augsburg and the Fuggerstadter have not treated their supporters to two or more goals in any of their half a dozen games on their own pitch.
Frankfurt is fourth on the German Bundesliga ladder and its high position owes much to its defensive numbers away from home. Frankfurt has conceded just three goals in its six German Bundesliga road matches and four of those games have gone under two and a half goals. And, irrespective of venue, Frankfurt’s 12 German Bundesliga matches have featured the fewest shots on target – 147 for and 112 against.
The bet that stands out in Sunday’s German Bundesliga match between Augsburg and Frankfurt is under two and a half goals at odds of -149 with Marathonbet, a bookmaker that likes to offer generous prices about statistically sound wagers.
Augsburg and Frankfurt locked horns in the German Bundesliga last season and both meetings went under two and a half goals, including a 0-0 draw at the Augsburg Stadium.
The German Bundesliga round kicks off with a Friday fixture between Mainz and Bayern Munchen that one thinks the latter will win with something to spare. It is not often that one can get close to even money about Bayern winning a German Bundesliga game after leading at half time so one is going to take a chance on that outcome at odds of -110 with Coral.
Mainz is on the top half of the German Bundesliga ladder but it has not beaten any side ranked higher than 11th, posting a record of 0-1-5 versus teams positioned in the top 10.
Twelve rounds into the German Bundesliga season and Mainz and Bayern Munchen have faced eight common foes. According to one’s German Bundesliga collateral form analysis, Bayern leads Mainz 4-4-0 so it is difficult to make a case for anything other than an away victory. Bayern is the all-round package, whereas Mainz can score goals but not defend well.
Mainz created one of last season’s biggest German Bundesliga upsets when it rebounded from losing 0-3 at home to Bayern Munchen to win the reverse fixture 2-1. Bayern has changed coach but most of its players remember the embarrassment of losing 1-2 at home to Mainz in March. Revenge is a powerful motivator and one hopes that Bayern goes for Mainz’s throat.
Dortmund has not set alight the German Bundesliga this term but it is 4-2-0 at home, including defeating Bayern Munchen 1-0. Dortmund may be off the German Bundesliga in seventh place but it is six rungs above Monchengladbach on the ladder because the Foals are really struggling.
According to one’s German Bundesliga collateral form analysis, Dortmund and Monchengladbach have had eight common opponents and BVB boasts a 5-1-2 advantage over the Foals, which is sufficient for one to be in their camp on Saturday.
Augsburg v Frankfurt – Under 2.5 Goals
Sunday 4th December, 16:30 GMT
Bayern Munich HT/FT Double Result
Friday 2nd December, 19:30 GMT
Dortmund to beat Monchengladbach
Saturday 3rd December, 14:30 GMT