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We comfortably beat the market yesterday, with both selections starting significantly shorter than the odds they were advised at, however, the runners failed to live up to market expectations and neither scored. Onwards and upwards and today we have another couple of overpriced runners.
2.10 Ayr – Dandy Place
Dandy Place is a colt out of Dandy Man (go figure by the name), and the 2 year old colt has a fantastic chance of getting his head in front just five days after finishing a very creditable 7th in a much stronger contest. The soft underfoot conditions should be to his liking, and Tim Easterby’s juvenile looks to have outstanding claims. He is currently available at odds of 9/4 3.25 +225 2.25 2.25 -0.44 but here at Sports Betting Online, we fancy his chances to be closer to 3/2 2.50 +150 1.50 1.50 -0.67 (40% chance of success).
Although he is yet to get his head in front in seven starts, Dandy Place has run some solid races in defeat, with his best three performances coming in his most recent runs. That suggests that horse is on an upwards curve and is soon to hit the winners’ enclosure. Back at Carlisle over 6 furlongs in September, Dandy Place finished a close up third in a competitive handicap. He was available at odds of 18/1 19.00 +1800 18.00 18.00 -0.06 that day, so clearly hadn’t shown much prior to the race. Followed that effort up with a second placed finish over 7 furlongs at Catterick, again at a big price. Tim Easterby decided to throw in his 2 year old to the Redcar 2 Year Old Trophy, a Listed race worth over $100k. Although the horse went off at odds of 100/1 101.00 +10000 100.00 100.00 -0.01 , he belied that price, and finished seventh, beaten just 4 lengths, and in the process recording his highest Racing Post Rating of 80.
The softer ground should definitely be in Dandy Place’s favour and the smaller field and big drop in class will also suit. He is a hold up performer who likes to come from off the pace, and that should not be a problem at Ayr on the straight course where there should be no hard luck stories.
2.40 Ayr – Reflation
Reflation was a comprehensive winner last time out and Michael Dods is looking to strike while the iron is hot with his 4 year old son of Stimulation. The gelding will be looking for his third win from the last four starts and he has found a very winnable opportunity. We already know that soft ground suits (has bolted up on heavy), and the straight course should play to his advantage. Promising young rider Connor Beasley takes the ride and the progressive horse can be backed at odds of 5/2 3.50 +250 2.50 2.50 -0.40 .
Until the end of August, Reflation had won just 1 of his 25 runs and it would not be unfair to suggest he was perhaps a little un-genuine. Connections retried the cheek pieces and the effect was immediate. The horse finished a very close up second at Newcastle and followed that up with a victory at Hamilton over 6 furlongs on good to soft ground. For some reason the horse bombed out a week later when trying to follow up, but there was clearly something amiss as Dods ran his horse just 48 hours after that disappointment. The North Yorkshire trainer clearly knows his horse, as the son of Stimulation absolutely bolted up by 5 lengths at the same track he had bombed out at just a couple of days earlier. Won that race under a penalty and goes off a mark of just 62 today, which is far from insurmountable.
Drawn 7, Reflation is likely to get some cover early before unleashing an irresistible run late in the day. He looks a good bet at 5/2 3.50 +250 2.50 2.50 -0.40 .
14:10 Ayr – Dandy Place to Win
Thursday 6th October
Odds: 9/4 3.25 +225 2.25 2.25 -0.44
14:40 Ayr – Reflation to Win
Thursday 6th October
Odds: 5/2 3.50 +250 2.50 2.50 -0.40