With the English Premier League on hiatus because of 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil qualifying matches, now is a terrific time to attack some of the exotic markets available on the world’s most popular domestic club football competition.
While everyone loves to bet on English Premier League games, the probability of finding a rick on one of the mainstream match markets is diminishing as every season goes by. The fact is that the English top flight is the most analysed tournament of its kind, odds-compiling errors are few and far between and any errors are picked up very quickly.
Some punters may look down their noses at exotic markets and label them as novelties but, time and time again, they are the lines on which bookmakers make their biggest mistakes because often they do not have an international market to follow. They go it alone and leave themselves open to be picked off by punters who know more about the subject and have more than a few minutes to spend analysing it.
Admittedly, it can be tough to get set on an exotic market but the bottom line is that most punters are not bothered about betting large sums of money, with the four-figure gamblers very much in the minority. Most punters can bet what they would like to bet without experiencing issues.
In betting on the next English Premier League manager to leave his post, Norwich boss Chris Hughton was massively overpriced at 25-1 just a couple of weeks ago and still remains the value at 10-1. According to the London media, Mark Hughes has until Christmas to turn around the fortunes of Queens Park Rangers and the Super Hoops have a run of winnable games in the next few rounds. Before visiting Manchester United on Saturday 24 November 2012, QPR will play Everton, Reading and Southampton at home, as well as Arsenal and Stoke away. The Canaries, on the other hand, have got home matches against Arsenal, Tottenham (English Capital One Cup fourth round), Stoke and Manchester United, plus road games versus Aston Villa and Reading, before the aforementioned date. Southampton manager Nigel Adkins is not the favourite any longer but he remains under his true odds.
There are markets on the team with the best home record in the English Premier League this season, with Manchester City (13-10), Chelsea (9-4) and Manchester United (11-4) at the top of them, with Arsenal the next shortest priced side at 14-1. The rick here seems to be the Red Devils being as low as 11-4 despite dropping three points to Spurs already. The last five terms have produced best home records of 18-1-0 (twice), 17-1-1 (twice) and 16-2-1 so it is clear that the Old Trafford boys have a mountain to climb from their base camp of 2-0-1. Also, bear in mind the upcoming fixtures. The next three visitors to Stamford Bridge will be Manchester United, Liverpool and Manchester City, whereas the latter named welcomes Swansea, Tottenham and Aston Villa over the same period. The Citizens are the value bet at 13-10 and they could be odds-on favourites in the very near future.
And at the risk of sounding like a Norwich hater, surely there is value in backing the Canaries at 7-2 (www.betvictor.com) to finish this season’s English Premier League season at the bottom of the ladder. They are as low as 2-1 and that looks more like the mark based not only on their current form but also their upcoming fixtures. Of all the relegation candidates they have the most challenging run of matches between now and December, including games at Reading and Southampton that will go a long way to determining their fate. Whether one backs Norwich to trade on the betting exchanges or to hold for the duration of the campaign, the 7-2 is far too big about what looks like the weakest side in the division.
Finally, Norwich is worth a bet at 5-2 (www.stanjames.com) to be the team that concedes the most goals in the English Premier League this season. Last term, only the three relegated sides leaked more goals than the Canaries and that was in spite of the good fortune enjoyed by them. Opposition teams hit their woodwork a record 26 times, otherwise they may have been playing English Championship football this season. They appear to be deteriorating fast under Hughton and make great appeal as the second favourites behind the Saints when they should be the jollies. It is one thing for Southampton to let in six goals away to Arsenal. It is quite another for Norwich to concede five goals at home to Liverpool.
The English Premier League competition does not resume until Saturday 20 October 2012 so spend the next week or so looking at ways to strike some value long-term bets.
Eric has been a sports journalist for over 20 years and has travelled the world covering top sporting events for a number of publications. He also has a passion for betting and uses his in-depth knowledge of the sports world to pinpoint outstanding odds and value betting opportunities.
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