Series Odds: Golden State +625 – San Antonio -850
Odds are provided by Bovada, one of the world’s top sportsbooks and our choice for NBA betting.
Golden State and San Antonio do not have the storied rivalries that many of the other playoff matchups do, but this Western Conference Semifinal pairing will be anything but boring. It’s a clash of young versus old as the upstart young Warriors team takes on the mostly veteran Spurs.
San Antonio has gotten the most rest out of any team in the First Round. They finished up their series against the Los Angeles Lakers over a week ago, after punishing the LA in a 4-0 sweep. Golden State pulled an upset in the First Round as they took the Denver Nuggets down in six game series that has made them the talk of the NBA playoffs so far.
The teams played four games in their regular season series and split the games 2-2.
The Spurs week plus of rest is something a veteran team hopes for as they begin to make a stretch run into the playoffs. San Antonio will need the rest if Stephen Curry is playing like he was in the first round.
Becoming a superstar with the nation looking on, Curry has been on fire during the postseason with not only his shooting, but with his passing as well, he leads the postseason in assists with just over 9 per game. This is a terrific series for point guards with Tony Parker manning the point for the Spurs, who himself was an MVP candidate before hurting his ankle late in the season.
Parker and Curry’s performances could tell a lot about how well each team will fare. The Spurs are solid defensively on the perimeter, but Curry is playing at such a high level it may be hard to contain him. His play has forced defenses to trap him and have contributed to better looks for Klay Thompson and Jarrett Jack. Parker and the Spurs have also been hot in their own right. They decimated the Lakers with their hot shooting last series.
Inside, it will be mostly Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter (who is doubtful for game one) sharing the load. Duncan has a lovely mid-range touch and has had a bit of a renaissance season in 2013. The veteran is playing some of the best basketball of his career even at age 37. Splitter is more one dimensional but is a solid player who is more effective than most at going to the rim. On Golden State’s side, Karl Landry and Andrew Bogut will get most of the inside work. Landry has been great this season, stepping up big for the Warriors off the bench and then starting, but he is undersized in this series and may not be a reliable asset against the Spurs’ larger bigs. Bogut has clearly peaked at the right time and was a huge part of the Warriors’ success against the Nuggets. It will be intriguing to see how he does against the Spurs’ tough frontcourt.
The wildcard is David Lee. After returning in game six against Denver, Lee only played a few minutes before sitting the rest of the game. It’s hard to say how effective Lee will be – he’s still considering season ending surgery on his knee – but it is something to think about nonetheless.
The draw for us is the immense plus odds for Golden State. At +625, we’re loving the Warriors. While the Spurs are rested and ready to go after a four game series against the Lakers, let’s not forgot this team lost in the First Round last year to the Memphis Grizzlies. Teams whose primary scorers are 30 years old or older will carry the physical burden of a long season more than a younger team.
Even with Popovich pulling the strings, the older Spurs may not be able to keep up with Golden State. Teams like the Warriors – whose hot shooting can carry them to win a series – could be a recipe for disaster against the Spurs, especially with the speed and youth of their squad.
Bettors can hit a marvellous payday as a $100 bet pays out $625. As far as upset picks go, in our opinion, the odds are more than generous to make this bet with a positive expectation.
Our Play: Golden State +625 with Bovada.
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