History points to goals and home win in bronze game

One should not think too hard about the 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil third-place play-off match between the heartbroken home team and the Netherlands: follow the trend and back over two and a half goals at odds of 1.62 with Boylesports.

Brazil will be seeking redemption in Brasilia following its record-breaking 1-7 loss to Germany in which it leaked four goals in seven of the craziest minutes of football one will ever see if one lives to be 700 years old. Brazil’s defence parted for Germany like the Red Sea parted for Moses and, in the end, it was a miracle that A Selecao did not concede more goals. Germany did not try hard in the second half.

Netherlands coach Louis van Gaal has come out and said that, if he were FIFA president, he would scrap the third-place play-off game. That Van Gaal has written off the match’s importance in public means that there is an outstanding chance that the Netherlands will play without any fear, throwing caution to the wind like it has not previously.

Neither Brazil nor the Netherlands has what one would call a rock-solid defence – the Dutch have not conceded a 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil goal for 292 minutes but, even so, their back line has been unimpressive – both sides are likely to play positively and then there are the history books. And, boy, the history books point one in a clear direction.

There has been a third-place play-off match at 17 of the 19 FIFA World Cups prior to this year’s tournament in Brazil. Fourteen of those games have gone over two and a half goals, 13 of those games have seen both teams score and 10 of those games have gone over three and a half goals. And that data is not skewed because of high-scoring matches in the FIFA World Cup’s formative years. Each of the last nine games for the bronze medal has gone over two and a half goals and the only side not to score in those games was Bulgaria in 1994.

For the record, here are the normal-time results of the FIFA World Cup third-place play-off matches: Germany 3 Austria in 1934; Brazil 4 Sweden 2 in 1938; Austria 3 Uruguay 1 in 1954; France 6 West Germany 3 in 1958; Chile 1 Yugoslavia 0 in 1962; Portugal 2 Soviet Union 1 in 1966; West Germany 1 Uruguay 0 in 1970; Poland 1 Brazil 0 in 1974; Brazil 2 Italy 1 in 1978; Poland 3 France 2 in 1982; France 2 Belgium 2 (France won 4-2 after extra time) in 1986; Italy 2 England in 1990; Sweden 4 Bulgaria 0 in 1994; Croatia 2 Netherlands 1 in 1998; Turkey 3 South Korea 2 in 2002; Germany 3 Portugal in 2006; and Germany 3 Uruguay 1 in 2010.

Trend spotters will notice that there has been only one FIFA World Cup third-place play-off game that has gone to extra time and three of the four host nations that have found themselves fighting for the bronze medal have won, with South Korea being the exception to that particular rule. And one would have to say that South Korea should not have made it through to the semi-finals of the 2002 FIFA World Cup Korea Japan because it benefitted from awful refereeing.

So, if one is going to have a bet or four on the 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil third-place play-off between the home team and the Netherlands it makes sense to back over two and a half goals at odds of 1.62, over three and a half goals at odds of 2.50 with Boylesports and William Hill, both teams to score at odds of 1.50 with several bookmakers, including Bet365 and BetVictor, and the home side at odds of 2.25 with Boylesports. If one had to place one bet only then it would be on over two and a half goals.

Tips Summary

Brazil v Netherlands Over 2.5 / Over 3.5 / BTTS /  Brazil Win
12th July 21:00
Odds: 1.62 / 2.50 / 1.50 / 2.25
Where to Bet: Boylesports, William Hill, Bet365, BetVictor

If just one bet, we advise Over 2.5 goals at 1.62