Goals in Belo and Colombian joy in Rio

Backing over two and a half goals is the best way to attack the first match of the 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil round of 16, the host nation versus its neighbour, Chile.

Chile may not be the most complete team in the 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil but it is one of the most confident and, while it may not have the all-around ability to beat the home side, it will have a go at eliminating the favourite.

FIFA’s statisticians are working overtime to collate all the important numbers in the 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil and some segments of Chile’s data are interesting. For example, Chile has had 98 attacks in its first three games but only 13 of them have been central attacks, with 38 of them going down the left and 47 of them going down the right. Both Brazil fullbacks, Dani Alves and Marcelo, are vulnerable to balls played behind them so that is where Chile is likely to go. The problem for Chile, though, is having attempts on target, with it managing only 14 in the tournament so far. That is just one more than Costa Rica and 21 fewer than Brazil.

There is definitely a buzz within the betting community that Chile can beat Brazil. One is not so sure about that. Brazil has an excellent recent record against Chile – A Selecao has won 10 and drawn two of the 12 meetings over the last 13 years – and, remember, it has been 12 years since the boys in yellow and blue lost a home match of any description.

Maybe Brazil is not playing sufficiently well to justify one stepping into it at short odds to beat Chile in normal time but backing either the draw or Jorge Sampaoli’s team does not get one’s pulse racing. What does, though, is over two and a half goals at odds of 1.83 with BetVictor. Over two and a half goals has paid out in each of the last eight games between Brazil and Chile, two of which have taken place since the start of 2013. Brazil and Chile drew 2-2 in Belo Horizonte 14 months ago and A Selecao defeated La Roja 2-1 in the Canadian city of Toronto seven months ago.

The second match in the 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil round of 16 is another all-South America affair between Colombia and Uruguay. Pardon the pun but one thinks Uruguay has bitten off more than it can chew given that it is very likely to face Colombia without Luis Suarez. Uruguay was dreadful in its 1-3 Group D loss to Costa Rica in which Suarez played no part and its front two of Edinson Cavani and Diego Forlan ran around as though they did not know each other’s names.

Colombia and Uruguay won their respective home games during the CONMEBOL qualifying competition for the 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil. However, it is well worth noting that Suarez was present for Uruguay’s 2-0 win in Montevideo but absent for La Celeste’s 0-4 loss in Barranquilla. Furthermore, Uruguay was fighting for its life when the Montevideo match took place, whereas Colombia was almost certain to get through.

Unbeaten in its last 10 games, a run that includes seven victories, Colombia has shown that it can prosper without injured striker Radamel Falcao and it is odds against to beat a flawed Uruguay side in normal time. There is no need to get clever with this 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil tie: Colombia is the bet at odds of 2.15 with PaddyPower.

Tips Summary

Brazil v Chile Over 2.5 Goals
28th June 17:00 GMT
Odds: 1.83
Where to Bet: BetVictor

Colombia to beat Uruguay
28th June 21:00 GMT
Odds: 2.15
Where to Bet: PaddyPower