Colombia overpriced for first away triumph over Brazil

Colombia has a terrible head-to-head record against the 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil host nation but hoodoos are there to be broken and one could not back the favourite at odds on.

Brazil and Colombia have met 25 times. Brazil beat Colombia 3-0 in Chile in 1945 and A Selacao won each of the first six matches between the teams. Not until 1985 did Colombia get the better of Brazil – a 1-0 victory in Bogota – and Los Cafeteros has not beaten A Selacao on Brazilian soil. Brazil leads its series versus Colombia 15-8-2 and A Selacao is 5-3-0 at home to the Los Cafeteros. On the bright side for Colombia, each of its last four clashes against Brazil have ended all square, including two in enemy territory.

It has been 14 years since Brazil lost a home game but, as one sees more of A Selecao competing in the world’s biggest sports event, one increasingly thinks that their undefeated run will not last much longer. Brazil is yet to perform in the manner befitting its tournament odds and now it faces a Colombia side that is unbeaten in 11 matches, playing some terrific soccer and, basically, on a football freeroll.

Even allowing for home advantage, the discrepancy between the 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil quarter-final betting odds of the host nation and Colombia is too great. One thinks that Brazil’s formidable home record is worthy of some respect and, therefore, one is not advocating backing Colombia to win the last-eight tie in regulation time. But one thinks that Bet365’s double chance odds of 2.05 about either Colombia or a draw are attractive, as are the odds of 3.00 available with several bookmakers, including BetVictor, Ladbrokes and Youwin, about Los Cafeteros progressing.

Neymar attracts most of the headlines but Luiz Gustavo has been one of the first names on Brazil’s team sheet over the last 12 months and his one-game suspension is a big blow to A Selecao. Brazil boss Luis Felipe Scolari does not have a like-for-like replacement for Luiz Gustavo, which is another reason why anyone who steams into A Selecao at odds on needs their head examined. Big Phil is not one for regrets but he must be wishing that he had picked a slightly different 23-man squad for the 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil.

The first 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil quarter-final sees the European giants France and Germany lock horns and one thinks that the draw stands out as the pick of the match options.

Since losing 0-3 to Brazil in Porto Alegre this time last year, France has won 10, drawn four and lost one of its 15 games, avenging its 0-2 defeat away to Ukraine with a 3-0 home victory over the same side. Germany has lost just one of its last 25 matches – 3-4 to the United States of America in Washington 13 months ago – with its overall record since September 2012 being 16 wins, eight draws and one defeat.

One thinks that the 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil performances of France and Germany have been roughly equal – and the two recent meetings of the teams have both resulted in 2-1 away wins. France beat Germany 2-1 in Bremen in March 2012 and Germany beat France 2-1 in Paris in February 2013.

Certainly one does not understand why 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil bookmakers are favouring Germany so strongly over France. One thinks that there is very little to separate the sides and, therefore, odds of 3.30 with several bookmakers, including Betfred and Coral, are appealing.

Tips Summary

Colombia to win/draw v Brazil (Col to qualify)
4th July 21:00
Odds: 2.05 (3.00)
Where to Bet:  Bet365, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Youwin

Germany and France to draw
4th July 17:00
Odds: 3.30
Where to Bet: Betfred, Coral