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The flat season is winding down, the jockey’s championship has been decided, and the switch into the National Hunt season has begun. That, however, does not mean that there is not the occasional spot of value on the remaining turf races and on the all-weather over the winter. Here at Sports Betting Online, Newcastle has fast become one of our favourite all-weather tracks, and we feel we have an excellent grasp over the draw and pace bias. With such a long home straight, there is seldom trouble in running problems and the best horse in the race usually wins. Today we have two selections from the Tyneside track, with both horses having outstanding claims.
6.45 Newcastle – Rural Celebration
Backing mares on the all-weather is seldom something that we do, but Rural Celebration won with such authority last time out and is ahead of the handicapper, so she has to be given the nod under Graham Gibbons. The David O’Meara trained 5 year old mare was heavily backed last time out over today’s course and distance, and that weight of support may have been inspired by the re-application of the visor. She won by a comfortable 3 lengths, and has the opportunity to follow up under the mandatory 6lb penalty.
Rural Celebration has always been a speedy performer and she has by and large been very consistent, winning 5 times from 29 starts, with a further 8 second and third placed finishes. In recent times, the daughter of Pastoral Pursuits has been running okay without hitting the frame, and connections have clearly thought she needed an aid to concentrate. The visor was first fitted over 6 furlongs at Carlisle. That trip is a little too far and the horse was hampered, so that run can be written off. She had clearly been training well before her last run, as there was significant market support. After racing prominently early, the mare burst clear to win with plenty in hand. Forceful tactics and the visor clearly had the desired effect. Although her mark has been elevated to 83, due to being turned out quickly, she is able to race off a mark of 80 in 0-75 company. A repeat of her performance last time out should be good enough to win this contest, and she could be a mare on the up.
More Beau might be just 1 from 12, but Dandy Nicholls does well in apprentice races and especially with sprinters. The 5 year old gelding bounced back from a tame effort at Thirsk on penultimate start with a very close up fourth in an 18 runner field at Leicester and back on the all-weather, if he reproduces that effort, he should score.
David Nicholls 5 year old sprinters have typically had far more than 12 runs, which indicates that the son of More Than Ready has had his problems over the year. Solitary success came at Redcar back in 2014, and he was subsequently off for 2 years from the summer of 2014 to 2016. Returned at Newcastle on the newly laid all-weather surface back in June and ran a blinder, finishing 2nd of 16. Had a few more unsuccessful starts after that and then returned to Newcastle where he went off a 5/2 3.50 +250 2.50 2.50 -0.40 favourite. Was a little keen that day but did manage to finish 3rd. Bombed out at Thirsk under forceful tactics, but then returned to form when ridden with more restraint last time out. Is likely to adopt more conservative tactics again and that should do the trick.
1 point win More Beau at 4/1 5.00 +400 4.00 4.00 -0.25 with William Hill
18:45 Newcastle – Rural Celebration to Win
Friday 28th October
Odds: 12/5 3.40 +240 2.40 2.40 -0.42
20:15 Newcastle – More Beau to Win
Friday 28th October
Odds: 4/1 5.00 +400 4.00 4.00 -0.25
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