Betting on Lewis Hamilton to start the Brazilian Grand Prix from pole position is the most attractive wager available in the penultimate round of the Formula One championship.
Between them, Mercedes teammates Nico Rosberg and Hamilton have secured pole position for 18 of this year’s 19 Formula One races, the exception to the rule coming when Daniel Ricciardo began the Monaco Grand Prix from first place.
The Brazilian Grand Prix is a tricky punting proposition because Hamilton, the hot favourite to take the chequered flag first, has not won at Interlagos. Hamilton has taken part in nine editions of the Brazilian Grand Prix for two seconds, one third, one fourth, one fifth, one seventh, one ninth and two retirements. Therefore, the Brazilian Grand Prix is, arguably, Hamilton’s worst event on the Formula One calendar and bookmakers are asking punters to take short odds about him breaking his duck at the 10th attempt.
The reason why bookmakers are taking no chances with their odds about Hamilton winning the Brazilian Grand Prix is that, given the state of the Formula One title race, his main rival, Rosberg, does not need to win at Interlagos. Rosberg knows that he will claim his first Formula One championship even if he finishes second in each of the season’s last two races. The biggest threat to Rosberg’s Formula One title bid is the German driver pushing too hard and failing to finish in either Brazil or the United Arab Emirates. So one does not expect Rosberg to go for broke.
Some punters will step in to support Hamilton at odds on to win the Brazilian Grand Prix but, with rain forecast to fall in the Sao Paulo region across the weekend and the British driver not having won at Interlagos in nine tries, one is more keen about backing him to secure pole position.
Hamilton has started each of the last two Formula One races from the premium spot on the grid as Rosberg has moved to protect his large championship lead. The Brazilian Grand Prix qualifying format ls fraught with danger – Sunday’s starting line-up boils down to a manic lap or two in the final 12 minutes of Saturday’s session – so the odds are that Rosberg will drive within himself all weekend long.
BetVictor is offering odds of -110 that Hamilton starts the Brazilian Grand Prix from pole position and that strikes one as a decent bet in the circumstances. The Red Bull duo of Max Verstappen and Daniel Ricciardo are likely to be the best of the rest but they were more than three-tenths of a second behind Hamilton in qualifying for the Mexican Grand Prix and neither the Dutchman nor the Australian has done well at Interlagos previously. For example, Ricciardo’s Brazilian Grand Prix results have been, in chronological order, 11th, retired, 10th, 13th and 20th. And you thought that Hamilton was not in love with the Interlagos circuit.
Lewis Hamilton to Win Pole Position
Brazilian Grand Prix