Chris Froome has won three of the last four editions of the Tour de France but the British cyclist looks under his true odds and the same goes for his closest market rival.
Froome failed to take out the Criterium du Dauphine and that is a bad omen for the three-time Tour de France champion – he came up short in both races in 2014. Froome has not won any race since September, he lost a chunk of time during the short time trial in the Criterium du Dauphine and he has struggled on mountain stages recently. The 2017 renewal of the Tour de France is one of the weakest in years and that is the only reason why Froome is so short in title betting.
Froome’s former Team Sky colleague, Richie Porte, is the universal Tour de France second favourite, with bookmakers respecting his performance in the first half of this year. Clearly, Porte’s 2017 form is noteworthy but the Australian rider has a terrible Grand Tour record – seven, 81st and did not finish in three attempts at the Giro d’Italia, 72nd, 89th, 19th, 23rd, 48th and fifth in six cracks at the Tour de France and 68th in one go at the Vuelta a Espana. In each of his 10 Grand Tour appearances, Porte has had at least one really bad day and, at this level of competition, one really bad day is usually sufficient to mean game over. Porte may win what looks like far from a vintage Tour de France edition but he is under-priced to realise his dream.
With Froome and Porte accounting for approximately 65 per cent of the Tour de France winner market, one thinks that there has to be some general classification value in other cyclists. Alberto Contador’s best days are probably behind him but dutching three riders – Nairo Quintana, Jakob Fuglsang and Fabio Aru – makes a degree of appeal.
Quintana has an enviable Grand Tour record, including wins in the 2014 Giro d’Italia and the 2016 Vuelta a Espana, and three podium finishes in three Tour de France starts. Doing well in the Giro d’Italia and the Tour de France in the same year is difficult so one could not back Quintana on his own but his Movistar team has argued that the Colombian cyclist is someone who thrives on hard graft and he does have the support of a top rider in the shape of Alejandro Valverde.
Fuglsang and Aru will share the Astana leadership honours in the Tour de France and, while it is very tough to work out which one of them will take centre stage, one is advocating keeping both of them on side. Fuglsang won the Criterium du Dauphine, claiming two stage victories en route to winning the overall race by 10 seconds. Aru was the 2015 Vuelta a Espana champion but not much has gone right for the Italian cyclist since then, including sustaining an injury that led him to miss this year’s Giro d’Italia. Aru helped Fuglsang to take out the Criterium du Dauphine before claiming the Italian championship leading into the Tour de France.
With Quintana listed at odds of +700 with many bookmakers, including Betfair, Marathonbet and Paddy Power, Fuglsang trading at odds of +2000 with Bet365 and Betfair and Aru available at odds of +2200 with Coral and Ladbrokes, dutching the Colombian, Dane and Italian to win the Tour de France produces a wager at odds of +363 , which is better than you will get about either Froome or Porte.
Dutch Quintana, Fuglsang and Aru to win the Tour de France
Saturday 1st July – Sunday 23rd July