Leader-friendly track to help Hamilton win again

hamilton
Lewis Hamilton
has won each of the last four Formula One races to overtake Mercedes teammate Nico Rosberg in the championship standings and the Briton is a worthy odds-on favourite for the United States Grand Prix in Austin.

Hamilton has won at least two of the grand prix categories – pole position, fastest lap and race – in each of the last four races and one thinks that an exotic option represents the best way to back the Briton in the United States of America in the third-last event of the Formula One season.

Among Bet365’s Hamilton specials relating to the United States Grand Prix are odds of -120  that the Briton starts the race from pole position and takes the chequered flag first. Maybe one is being greedy – Bwin is offering odds of -154  that Hamilton wins the race – but one thinks that the Briton will prove a class apart in the United States of America on a track where pole is a hugely advantageous.

Editions of the United States Grand Prix have been run on and off since 1908 but the Circuit of the Americas has been the venue for only the last two runnings, in 2012 and 2013. The Circuit of the Americas opened to widespread praise in 2012 but the results of the two United States Grand Prix editions staged on the track point to be leader friendly, with a bias towards cars in odd-numbered grid positions.

Hamilton, driving for McLaren, won the 2012 United States Grand Prix, although he required assistance from several backmarkers to catch and overtake Sebastian Vettel on the 42nd lap. Vettel vented into his radio about how the slow cars cost him the lead, the heavy traffic enabling Hamilton to get sufficiently close to the Red Bull driver to use his drag reduction system and execute an overtaking manoeuvre.

Vettel did not make a mistake from pole position in the 2013 United States Grand Prix, leading for all except a couple of mid-race laps because he pitted before Romain Grosjean did. Vettel turned the race into a procession, winning as he pleased to make it eight victories on the spin for him.

A feature of both editions of the United States Grand Prix held at the Circuit of the Americas has been the relatively poor starts of cars positioned second, fourth, sixth and so on when all the red lights go out to signal the beginning of the race. For example, Mark Webber stole second place from Hamilton on the first lap of the 2012 United States Grand Prix, while Fernando Alonso climbed from seventh to fourth. And in the 2013 United States Grand Prix, Hamilton improved from fifth to third before the end of the opening lap.

Red Bull was the fastest Formula One car in 2012 and 2013 when Vettel should have won the United States Grand Prix from pole position. Mercedes is the fastest Formula One car this year and Hamilton’s form around the Circuit of the Americas is considerably better than that of Rosberg. Hamilton has finished first and fourth in the last two United States Grand Prix events compared to Rosberg’s mediocre results of 13th in 2012 and ninth in 2013.

Hamilton is the United States Grand Prix bet at odds of -120  to win the race from pole position. One is reluctant to bet on a Hamilton hat-trick of pole position, fastest lap and race in the United States Grand Prix because that is a feat that the Briton has achieved only three times in this season’s 16 contests and there is no need for him to go chasing that statistical clean sweep. What matters to Hamilton is 25 more Formula One championship points.

Tips Summary

Hamilton to win the race from pole position
1st November  (Qualifying)
2nd November (Race)
Odds:  -120
Where to Bet: Bet365

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