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Bookmakers are inviting punters to take short odds about Lewis Hamilton doing what only the great Michael Schumacher has done since 1992 – win the next Formula One race immediately after clinching the driver championship.
Schumacher celebrated his Formula One title victories in 1995, 2000, 2001 and 2002 by taking out the subsequent race but he failed to repeat the trick in 2004, finishing second in that year’s Italian Grand Prix behind Rubens Barrichello. Four Formula One championships between 2005 and 2014 were wrapped up prior to the final race of that particular year and none of them saw the title-winning driver take the chequered first in his first post-championship race.
From a value perspective, Hamilton is a no-go zone at short odds to win Sunday’s Mexican Grand Prix. Hamilton’s love of the high life is well known and the Mexican Grand Prix comes one week after his United States Grand Prix victory clinched his second Formula One championship. Fernando Alonso (2004), Jenson Button (2009) and Sebastian Vettel (2011 and 2013) failed to do what bookmakers are inviting punters to take short odds about Hamilton doing on Sunday so one believes that there has to be better bets away from the favourite.
The Mexican Grand Prix will take place at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez track in Mexico City, with the race making its first appearance on the Formula One program since 1992 when Nigel Mansell won for Williams. Furthermore, the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez circuit of 2015 is different to the one of 1992, although it does still feature two lengthy straights that should favour the Mercedes and Ferrari teams.
So, if one accepts that Hamilton is unbackable at odds on, one is left to choose between the drivers who have won the six Formula One races that have escaped the Briton’s grasp this year – Nico Rosberg and Vettel. However, with the odds as they are – Rosberg is trading at odds of 3/1 4.00 +300 3.00 3.00 -0.33 and Vettel is available at odds of 10.00 with William Hill – is there a requirement to make a choice between the two? Dutching Rosberg and Vettel generates a bet on the most likely Mexican Grand Prix winners other than Hamilton at odds of 37/20 2.85 +185 1.85 1.85 -0.54 , which strikes one as the best way to play in what, to all intents and purposes, is a dead rubber.
There are plenty of unknowns going into the Mexican Grand Prix because of the lack of recent course form and the state of the championship but one thing that is certain is that Sergio Perez will be pumped up for his home race. Bwin has paired Perez with Daniil Kvyat for Mexican Grand Prix match betting and one likes the local hero at odds of 19/20 1.95 -105 0.95 -1.05 0.95 .
Perez trails Kvyat by 12 points in the Formula One standings but the Mexican has won half of his 16 head-to-head clashes versus the Russian, including each of his last three. It is an educated guess that Mercedes-powered cars such as Perez’s Force India vehicle will enjoy an advantage over other cars in the Mexican Grand Prix and one can see Kvyat’s Red Bull being a little bit off the pace on the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez track’s two lengthy straights. Red Bull may have Formula One’s best chassis but, when it comes to raw power, its Renault engine is not first class, hence why the two parties have had such a public falling out in 2015.
Rosberg/Vettel to win Mexican Grand Prix
31st October 19:00
Odds: 37/20 2.85 +185 1.85 1.85 -0.54
Perez to beat Kyvat
31st October 19:00
Odds: 19/20 1.95 -105 0.95 -1.05 0.95
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