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Bookmakers are not paying enough respect to Greater Western Sydney ahead of its Australian Football League match versus Sydney in what is the pick of several Round 17 blockbusters.
Australian Football League Round 17 features games between Geelong and Hawthorn, Fremantle and West Coast and Greater Western Sydney and Sydney and it is the so-called Battle of the Bridge that has captured one’s attention because one thinks that bookmakers have got carried with the Swans.
Sydney stank out the Australian Football League in the first half a dozen rounds, capitulating to Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, West Coast, Greater Western Sydney and Carlton to be at the foot of the ladder following six matches. Sydney has rebounded to have an 8-0-7 Australian Football League record with seven rounds remaining but the Swans have been beating up on most of the competition’s weaklings, defeating just three teams in the top eight.
Twelve points, which is the equivalent of three wins, split Greater Western Sydney and Sydney on the Australian Football League ladder, with the former having lost fewer games than any other side after 15 games – every team has had its bye. Furthermore, according to one’s Australian Football League collateral form analysis, Greater Western Sydney is vastly superior to Sydney despite of what bookmakers think. Greater Western Sydney and Sydney have had 13 common Australian Football League opponents this season and the Giants enjoy a 9-1-3 collateral form edge over the Swans, including a big win in Round Five’s reverse fixture. Sydney kicked the first four goals when it entertained Greater Western Sydney in Australian Football League action three months before the Giants roared back to lead by 10 points at quarter time, 32 points at half time, 22 points at three-quarter time and 42 points at full time. Barely was there a match statistic on which Sydney posted better data than Greater Western Sydney.
Greater Western Sydney joined the Australian Football League in 2012 and it lost each of its first four games against Sydney and eight of its opening nine derby matches. But Greater Western Sydney has blossomed into an Australian Football League powerhouse and the Giants have taken care of business versus Sydney in each of the last three games between the Harbour City sides. And, importantly, Greater Western Sydney has been at least 36 points superior to Sydney in those three Australian Football League matches.
One would not take issue with any punter who backs Greater Western Sydney to win its Australian Football League game against Sydney by any means at odds of 83/100 1.83 -120 0.83 -1.20 0.83 with several bookmakers, including 32Red, 888Sport and Unibet. But the purpose is of this weekly column is to put up decent wagers at decent odds so one is going to suggest backing Greater Western Sydney at odds of 11/5 3.20 +220 2.20 2.20 -0.45 with the same aforementioned bookmakers to lead at the end of every quarter at Spotless Stadiu, which is part of the Sydney Olympic Park precinct. Greater Sydney Western has led at the end of every quarter in each of its three Australian Football League victories over Sydney since the start of the former’s winning streak versus its longer established and more successful neighbour.
An interesting piece of trivia is that Wimbledon women’s singles semi-finalist Johanna Konta is a Greater Western Sydney supporter because her sister, Eva, is married to Giants ruckman Shane Mumford. Konta grew up in Sydney.
Greater Western Sydney to lead at the end of each quarter
Saturday 15th July, 10:25 GMT
Odds: 11/5 3.20 +220 2.20 2.20 -0.45
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