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3:30 Wolverhampton – Top Boy
The 3.30 race at Wolverhampton is an intriguing affair. Fairly high class sprinters racing around Wolverhampton’s sharp 5 furlong track. The market suggests that the race is wide open, but we have found a horse who appears to be significantly overpriced. Top Boy is a consistent sprinter from the Derek Shaw yard, and he has shown an aptitude for artificial surfaces. The horse has a rather abject record on the turf (just 1/43), but his record on the all-weather is far more impressive, with 4 wins from 17 starts with a further 6 places. The son of Exceed And Excel has been running relatively well on the turf in recent starts despite his dislike for the surface, and he showed he is back bang in form with a good second placed effort back on the all-weather at Chelmsford last time out. At odds of 13/2 7.50 +650 6.50 6.50 -0.15 , he appeals as a strong each-way bet.
Top Boy has always been a decent handicapper and has typically given his supporters a run for their money. There was plenty of market support for Derek Shaw’s runner last time out at Chelmsford in Class 4 company, when he went off at odds of 3/1 4.00 +300 3.00 3.00 -0.33 . Chased leaders and stayed on strongly but just failed to get up. The front two pulled a length and a half ahead of the third and the Exceed And Excel gelding has been raised to a mark of 87. This is a Class 3 race, so naturally the competition is going to be stiffer, but there are plenty of things that suggest Top Boy should give a bold show.
Drawn in stall 3, Top Boy is likely to go forward and sit just behind the leaders. He has the services of Noel Garbutt – a handy 3lb claimer, and there is a very good chance the race will be run to suit. Likely to place and could well win.
6.40 Kempton – Captain Courageous
Captain Courageous starts handicap life off a very workable mark of 63 and he has rightly been installed as a strong market leader for the 6.40 at Kempton. This Class 6 contest is fairly weak and Ed Walker does well with his handicap debutants, so it is no surprise that the bookmakers have taken a conservative approach when pricing up the race. Despite the prohibitive odds, Captain Courageous could well be a cut above these and the jockey booking in itself has to be taken as a positive, as George Baker abandons the second favourite Candesta (a horse on whom he won last time out) in favour of Walker’s runner.
Captain Courageous started his career at Chepstow on soft ground over 7 furlongs and went off a well supported 7/2 4.50 +350 3.50 3.50 -0.29 joint second favourite. However, that money was misplaced as the horse finished second last and was beaten 18 lengths. Subsequently went off at long odds next time out at Pontefract and didn’t show much, finishing 7th of 9. When making his all-weather debut on his third run, the son of Canford Cliffs showed a little more ability, finishing 6th of 14, beaten just shy of 7 lengths. That run, combined with the fact that the horse was well backed on debut gives us hope that the horse does have some potential for improvement. Walker will have known that if his horse finished too close up at Chelmsford, then his handicap mark would have suffered, and as such, it is no surprise the horse ran okay without winning.
Captain Courageous is likely to be rated in the mid-70’s in no time and should take this race on the way to better things.
Bet – 1 point win Captain Courageous at 7/4 2.75 +175 1.75 1.75 -0.57 with William Hill
15:30 Wolverhampton – Top Boy E/W
Tuesday 1st November
Odds: 13/2 7.50 +650 6.50 6.50 -0.15
18:40 Kempton – Captain Courageous to Win
Tuesday 1st November
Odds: 7/4 2.75 +175 1.75 1.75 -0.57
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