Canadian Grand Prix to Be a War of Attrition

safety

Montreal’s Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve, home of the Canadian Grand Prix since 1978, is notoriously tough on Formula One cars so one thinks that the best bet on the seventh race of the season is for the safety car to make an appearance.

The Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve is a favourite of Formula One drivers because it has a reputation for producing exciting racing, arguably with greater frequency than any other track on the calendar. Daniel Ricciardo won last year’s Canadian Grand Prix, which was the sixth race in Formula One history to end behind the safety car – Felipe Massa and Sergio Perez collided on the last lap of what a truly memorable contest.

Eight of last year’s 22 Canadian Grand Prix competitors were not classified, with another three drivers not finishing the race but receiving placings because they had completed more than 90 per cent of the distance. The Canadian Grand Prix has a relatively high attrition rate and, even when cars take the chequered flag, many of them are in a bad state.

The safety car made its first Formula One appearance during the 1973 Canadian Grand Prix and it has become synonymous with the race recently. For example, the 2007 Canadian Grand Prix had four safety car periods, the 2011 Canadian Grand Prix had a record six safety car periods and last year’s Canadian Grand Prix had two safety car periods. Safety car driver Bernd Maylander has few quiet weekends in Montreal.

There have been nine editions of the Canadian Grand Prix over the last 10 years – the 2009 race did not take place because Formula One bosses dropped it from the schedule due to contractual problems – and the safety car has made an appearance in half a dozen of those events. According to one’s research, the safety car has come out 16 times in the last nine editions of the Canadian Grand Prix, with several close calls otherwise the statistics would be even higher.

Bet365 is offering odds of -200 that the safety car gets out on the Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve during the Canadian Grand Prix and that strikes one as a smarter odds-on investment than backing Formula One championship Lewis Hamilton to win the race for what would be the fourth time in his career.

There is no doubt that the Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve suits Hamilton’s driving style and that, equipped with Formula One’s fastest car, he is the most probable Canadian Grand Prix winner. But the Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve is not all about straight-line speed, with most of its corners being slow and the track placing enormous demands on braking systems. Throw in the high likelihood of the safety car making an appearance, which would compress the field and result in pit-stop strategies being crucial, and one can find sufficient reasons not to back Hamilton at odds on.

The Canadian Grand Prix exotic markets on the ones on which to concentrate. The long-range weather forecast for Montreal is okay so one does not want to step into Bwin‘s odds about the number of safety cars with its prices looking right in the circumstances. But one does likes the idea of betting on under 16 and a half classified drivers in the Canadian Grand Prix, which Bet365 is quoting at odds of +110 . One would require four drivers not to receive a placing for that bet to collect, which would be 20% of the field. Only twice in the 35 editions of the Canadian Grand Prix at the Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve has at least 80% of the field finished.

Tips Summary

Canadian Grand Prix – Safety Car out
7th June 19:00 GMT
Odds: -200
Where to Bet: Bet365

Canadian Grand Prix – Under 16.5 finishers
7th June 19:00 GMT
Odds: +110
Where to Bet: Bet365

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