The USA are set for a successful Olympics campaign.

Americans to Have a Golden Fortnight in Rio

The USA are set for a successful Olympics campaign.

The Rio 2016 Olympic Games are less than one month away so now is the time to track down some value in the various country medals markets that bookmakers are offering.

Gracenote, formerly known as Infostrada Sports, monitors Olympic Games sports around the clock so it is in a better position than most people to predict what will happen in Rio next month. According to the latest Gracenote Virtual Medal Table, which the organisation published on Wednesday 6 July, the United States of America is set to occupy first place on the Rio 2016 Olympic Games medal chart ahead of China, Russia, Great Britain, Germany, Australia, Japan, France, Korea Republic and the host nation, Brazil. It is not a huge surprise that Gracenote projects that the United States of America will be the most successful nation at the Rio 2016 Olympic Games – the Americans are very short odds to finish top of the medal chart – but the company’s forecast for the favourite does open the way for a good bet with Ladbrokes.

According to Gracenote, the United States of America is set to win 41 gold medals, 23 silver medals and 28 bronze medals at the Rio 2016 Olympic Games if the various events pan out in line with its analysis. Ladbrokes is offering odds of -137  that gold is the colour of Rio 2016 Olympic Games medal of which the United States of America wins most and, while that option is the clear favourite over silver and bronze, one thinks that 57.80 per cent underestimates the chance of it coming out on top. The United States of America won 46 gold medals, 28 silver medals and 29 bronze medals at the London 2012 Olympic Games, improving gold’s record to five wins, one tie and two losses (both to silver) in the eight competitions since the Americans boycotted the 1980 Moscow Olympic Games. Admittedly, two of those eight editions did take place in the United States of America but, even so, gold should be trading at shorter odds than -137  based on other history and the Gracenote Virtual Medal Table.

Rio 2016 Olympic Games punters may wonder if it is worth waiting until Thursday 21 July to see what the Court of Arbitration for Sport does regarding the participation of Russia in athletics. But Gracenote thinks that the United States of America’s Rio 2016 Olympic Games medal count is unlikely to change even if the Court of Arbitration for Sport bans Russia from taking part in athletics events. According to Gracenote’s number crunchers, Russia is set to win six Rio 2016 Olympic Games athletic medals, with any expulsion for the Russians resulting in improved tallies for nine nations – China, Croatia, Germany, Jamaica, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Poland, Spain and Venezuela. Gracenote thinks that Russia is likely to occupy third place on the Rio 2016 Olympic Games medal chart irrespective of whether it’s athletics stars get the green light or are banned.

Other Rio 2016 Olympic Games wagers that appeal based on the difference between Gracenote’s projections and the odds of Ladbrokes are over 10 and a half gold medals for Japan at -120  and under 31 and a half medals for Korea Republic at the same price. According to Gracenote, Japan set to win 14 gold medals, 10 silver medals and 14 bronze medals, while its Korea Republic forecast is 10 gold, five silver and 10 bronze for a total of 25 that includes a fair percentage of third-place finishes. Both bets have merit, particularly the one on Korea Republic because, based on Gracenote’s data, it may not get into the 20s if a few results go against it.

Tips Summary

Colour of most USA Medals – Gold
Rio Olympics, 5th – 21st August 2016
Odds:  -137

Japan Gold Medals – Over 10.5
Rio Olympics, 5th – 21st August 2016
Odds:  -120

Korean Republic Medals – Under 31.5
Rio Olympics, 5th – 21st August 2016
Odds:  -120

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