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We are going for a long priced one at Salisbury racecourse as our first selection of the day and the SBO Racing team believe that this horse could potentially represent great value. Who is this horse? He is Master Grey. Rod Millman’s 2-year-old is currently available with the layers at a juicy price and this contest doesn’t look anything particularly special, so he just has to be backed.
Master Grey was prominent in the betting when making his racecourse debut – something that is unusual for the Rod Millman yard. The son of Mastercraftsman went off at fairly short odds for his debut run at Nottingham, but the market confidence seems to be misplaced as he ran green and was outpaced before staying on a little towards the end of the contest. That race was a novice event and Millman clearly fancied that he had a smart individual in his stable, so it is always best to forgive one run, and based on connections support for the runner on his first start, he gets the nod.
As well as having good market vibes for his start at Nottingham, Master Grey is supported by another fact – Rod Millman’s second time out 2 year old record. The trainer’s runners tend to progress significantly from first start to second and when they are 20/1 21.00 +2000 20.00 20.00 -0.05 or shorter, they become very profitable; 12/51 (24%) for £39 LSP with the horses winning over twice as often as they are entitled to based on odds. Master Grey is a great bet at 12/1 13.00 +1200 12.00 12.00 -0.08 with Bet365, Ladbrokes and Coral.
After having a fabulous few years from 2010 onwards, Philip McBride has been somewhat in the doldrums in the last few years, as his strike rate has diminished, and the quality of horses in his care has also taken a hit. He does however remain a very shrewd trainer and while his representative Onefootinparadise is far from a superstar, he carries a very light weight and should be able to close in this 6 furlong race at Salisbury. McBride’s runner has shown plenty of ability to date and has the potential to go forward again now he is being stepped up in trip. Bettors can currently obtain odds of 2/1 3.00 +200 2.00 2.00 -0.50 with Bet365, Ladbrokes and Coral which seem good given his rating.
As a cheaply bought horse, Onefootinparadise is able to race off a feather weight in this contest. He has been allotted just 8 stone 2lbs and his lightweight jockey David Egan is able to reduce the burden further with a useful 5lb claimers allowance. That effectively leaves our selection on just 7 stone 11lbs which is about as low as you can go. Compare that weight with that of the favourite – Running Cloud carries 9 stone 3 and there is a 20lb weight difference between the runners. The way Onefootinparadise has been running suggests that he will benefit from the step up to 6 furlongs, and if the horse runs to a mark in the low 70’s, then Running Cloud would need to be very good to be victorious.
Philip McBride likes to utilise the service of claiming jockeys and he does very well when they are booked to ride his mounts. 5-7lb claimers are 33/230 (14%) for the stable for £71 LSP – with the runners scoring 36% more often than they are entitled to. Furthermore, McBride is also profitable when giving his horses between 8-14 days off the track; 51/313 (16%) for £111 LSP, with an A/E of 9/25 1.36 -278 0.36 -2.78 0.36 . There really seems to be a lot going for McBride’s horse and he is the choice.
14:10 Salisbury – Master Grey to win
Wednesday 28th June
Odds: 12/1 13.00 +1200 12.00 12.00 -0.08
15:10 Salisbury – Onefootinparadise to win
Wednesday 28th June
Odds: 2/1 3.00 +200 2.00 2.00 -0.50
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