United represents Premier League back-to-lay value

The English Premier League fixtures came out during the FIFA World Cup and one’s first impression is that they present an opportunity to back one of the big teams to win the title with a view to laying off one’s bet after a few months.

The consensus is that the English Premier League has seven big sides – Arsenal, Chelsea, Everton, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United and Tottenham – with the other 13 teams making up the numbers in the grand scheme of things.

One has reviewed the English Premier League fixture for the big seven sides and one is in no doubt as to which of them has been handed the softest schedule in the first few months – Manchester United and its new manager, Louis van Gaal.

Manchester United’s first English Premier League match under Van Gaal will be versus Swansea at Old Trafford. Yes, one remembers that Swansea upset Manchester United 2-1 at Old Trafford in last season’s English FA Cup but the Red Devils avenged that loss inside one week with a 2-0 English Premier League home win and they won their away fixture as well.

Subject to fixtures being rescheduled, of which there is a risk because of television demands, weather conditions and so on, Manchester United’s first eight English Premier League games will be Swansea (home), Sunderland (away), Burnley (away), Queens Park Rangers (home), Leicester (away), West Ham (home), Everton (home) and West Bromwich (away). It is as if Van Gaal handpicked the matches.

Three of Manchester United’s first five English Premier League games will be against the newly promoted teams and, barring an injury crisis, the Red Devils will be betting favourites for not only their first eight matches but also their ninth, which will be versus Chelsea at Old Trafford.

There is a very genuine possibility that Manchester United, particularly if Van Gaal splashes the cash, will win each of its first eight English Premier League games before Chelsea arrives at Old Trafford. To put it bluntly, no other English Premier League side has as good a chance of winning each of its first eight matches as Manchester United because of what the fixture computer published midway through last month.

For example, Manchester City’s first eight English Premier League fixtures include home matches against Chelsea, Liverpool and Tottenham, plus away games versus Arsenal and Newcastle. Chelsea’s first eight English Premier League fixtures include a home match against Arsenal, plus away games versus Everton and Manchester City before Round Nine at Manchester United. Liverpool’s first English Premier League fixtures include a home match against Everton, plus away games versus Manchester City and Tottenham. And Arsenal’s first eight English Premier League fixtures include home matches against Manchester City and Tottenham, plus away games versus Chelsea and Everton.

Backing to lay has become a popular punting policy since the advent of betting exchanges made it easy to sell back bets once the market had moved in one’s favour. Manchester United is available at odds of 6.50 with many bookmakers, including Ladbrokes, Paddy Power and Sky Bet, to win the English Premier League in its first season under Van Gaal. If one backs Manchester United at those odds on Betfair or another betting exchange then one has an excellent chance of being able to lay the Red Devils in mid October at a much shorter price. History shows that the English Premier League title market often overreacts to what, on reflection, are fairly unsurprising results. Manchester United will shorten quite considerably if it wins each of its first eight English Premier League matches, irrespective of its opponents.

How could backing Manchester United to lay work out? Well, if one had 100 units on Manchester United at odds of 6.50 and the Red Devils shortened to odds of 3.25 then one could lay them for a stake of 200 units and lock in a 100-unit profit, regardless of what ends up being the result.

Tips Summary

Manchester United to win league (back to lay)
Kicks off 16th August
Odds: 6.50
Where to Bet: Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, Sky Bet, Betfair

Louis Van Gaal
Manchester United
Premier League

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