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When in doubt, bet on Hoffenheim being fun to watch
Eric Roberts 2014-03-24 in Football Tips
There has been one golden rule of German Bundesliga betting this season: when in doubt on what to bet, take a punt on a game featuring Hoffenheim going over two and a half goals.
The numbers are extraordinary and, even though they have not gone unnoticed by the bookmaking fraternity, odds compilers cannot go sufficiently low in their offers about over two and a half goals to dissuade one from suggesting the play.
Hoffenheim increased Leverkusen’s post-Christmas blues with an upset 3-2 away victory on Sunday. It was 11th time in 26 German Bundesliga matches that Hoffenheim had featured in a game with at least five goals and now its numbers for over two and a half goals are 23-3. Yes, your eyes are not playing tricks on you. Only three times have Hoffenheim featured in a German Bundesliga match of zero, one or two goals, with its games averaging an amazing 4.42 goals.
Hannover is notoriously poor on its travels and, even its recent 3-0 road defeat of Hertha still leaves it with the German Bundesliga’s second worst away record. But one can count on Hannover to take part in entertaining away matches, with seven of its 13 German Bundesliga road games going over two and a half goals. Hannover’s German Bundesliga numbers for over two and a half goals irrespective of venue are 15-11 but one should note that only two of its 26 matches have had fewer than two goals. So there is little separating Hannover from being a good over side and a great one. Ladbrokes are offering 1.50 on over 2.5 goals, so take it.
Hoffenheim humiliated Hannover 4-1 in the reverse German Bundesliga fixture but the 96ers had a player sent off in the 12th minute and another one dismissed in the 64th minute. Therefore, do not go steaming into Hoffenheim because it humbled Hannover five months ago. That is not to say that Hoffenheim cannot win, just that it is no more than fairly priced at odds of 2.00 with Betfred and Totesport in light of its propensity to leak a large number of goals.
Whereas Hoffenheim is the German Bundesliga’s king of over two and a half goals, Wolfsburg is the division’s king of both teams to score. Both sides have found the back of the net in each of Wolfsburg’s last six German Bundesliga games, 10 of its last 11 and 14 of its last 16. Wolfsburg deserves to be the favourite for its German Bundesliga assignment at Bremen but usually the home team is good for at least one goal in front of its fans, even when it cops a hiding.
Both Bremen and Wolfsburg to score a goal in their German Bundesliga is trading at odds of 1.65 with BetVictor and it feels like a better play than backing over two and a half goals at odds of 1.80 with the same opinionated bookmaker.
Finally, the German Bundesliga derby between Dortmund and Schalke is one of club football’s fiercest rivalries and, generally speaking, it produces no shortage of goalmouth action. Each of the last four editions of the Revierderby has gone over two and a half goals, including Dortmund’s 3-1 German Bundesliga win on enemy territory in October.
With second-placed Dortmund 23 points behind Bayern Munchen and third-placed Schalke six points ahead of Leverkusen, there is no reason whatsoever for either BVB or 04 to play conservatively in the 139th Revierderby, a head to head that Schalke leads 57-48 with 33 draws. Both Dortmund and Schalke are among the top six German Bundesliga sides in terms of goals per match, with BVB’s games averaging 3.38 and 04’s matches having a mean of 3.38. Twenty of Dortmund’s 26 German Bundesliga games have gone over two and a half goals, while Schalke’s tally is 17-7. Bwin and Ladbrokes have got odds of 1.53 about over two and a half goals at Signal Iduna Park when the giants of the Ruhr Valley lock horns again.
Eric has been a sports journalist for over 20 years and has travelled the world covering top sporting events for a number of publications. He also has a passion for betting and uses his in-depth knowledge of the sports world to pinpoint outstanding odds and value betting opportunities.
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